Ugandan war reports

Press, 30 November 1978, Page 16

Ugandan war reports

Reports from Uganda that Tanzanians have bombarded a town and invaded part of Uganda have to be treated with considerable caution until Tanzania or Uganda allow outside observers into the battle areas. From as close as outside observers have been, little evidence has come that Tanzanians have done all that the Ugandans have claimed. Yet the Ugandan reports emanating from Kampala are not without significance because they indicate that President Amin is not yet satisfied with the outcome of such clashes as have occurred. He may be indulging in a game to impress the United Nations, the Arab League, and the Organisation of African Unity, all of which have put pressure on him. It must be thought unlikely, however, that Mr Nyerere has allowed himself to be drawn into an ill-advised effort to humiliate President Amin, either to vindicate national pride after Uganda’s earlier incursion into Tanzania or to satisfy those in Tanzania who are clamouring for Tanzania to topple President Amin. Mr Nyerere is known to regard the development of Tanzania’s own economy and a speedy end to white minority rule in southern Africa as more important goals than

ridding Africa of Amin. He would be acting out of character were he to allow Tanzania’s resources and attention to be diverted from, these tasks.

Mr Nyerere must also have in mind that diplomatic pressure was sufficient to have President Amin withdraw his troops from Tanzania and disavow any intention to occupy any part of Tanzanian territory. Circumstances prevent even a man as unstable and unpredictable as President Amin from posing any real threat to Tanzania and the Ugandan incursion may indeed have been as much a case of Ugandan troops pursuing Ugandan rebels or refugees as an effort to show Tanzania to be weak militarily or to occupy permanently any part of Tanzania.

President Nyerere still gives sanctuary to Mr Milton Obote, whom President Amin deposed in 1971. Tanzania is also host to more than 10,000 Ugandan refugees. While these circumstances exist, Uganda and Tanzania are unlikely to live without rankles. President Amin’s abominable conduct within his own country and his appalling economic management will do nothing to reduce the numbers of those who seek sanctuary and who will no doubt plot against Amin.