Arms sale to China

Press, 29 November 1978, Page 16

Arms sale to China

Britain apparently intends to take its time over whether it will sell Harrier vertical-take-off fighters to China. Since the sale of the planes was first suggested it was obvious that the Soviet Union would disapprove of a sale. The depth of Soviet distaste is reflected in the fact that President Brezhnev personally wrote a letter warning Britain against the sale. Britain will have to attach some weight to Mr Brezhnev’s letter, but it might have the reverse effect from what he intended and may even make Britain readier to sell the aircraft. The vertical-take-off planes make good sense for China, which is reported to want about 90 of them. China plans to deploy them on its border with the Soviet Union where it faces Soviet weapons greatly superior to its own. The British argue that the sale would not alter the balance of power because the Soviet Union would still be superior and that, in any event, the Harriers are defensive, not offensive, aircraft. Britain is also interested in the commercial aspects of the deal. Ninety aircraft costing about SNZ7.S million each would provide or maintain a great many jobs in Britain’s aviation industry. The Chinese may yet think again because the Harriers are complex aircraft which are difficult to fly, and need sophisticated ground equipment. Even the Americans do not find them easy to run Britain has to consider not only the technical and commercial aspects of the proposed sale, but aspects of politics and security as well. These are consid-

erations between the Soviet Union and Britain and also between the West, particularly the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, and the Soviet Union. At first sight it might seem to be in the interests of Europe if the Soviet Union had to take some of its forces now facing Europe and redeploy them along the Chinese border, but Soviet fears have to be allayed lest a jumpy Soviet Union serve no-one’s best interests. The United States is also considering selling to China communications equipment which, while designed primarily for domestic purposes, could have some defence uses. Britain will also need to consider whether China is likely to use the planes against Vietnam, should the Chinese conflict with that country deteriorate, and to consider what the Soviet response to that would be. The proposal has come at a time of talks on arms between East and West and when it seems likely that a new StrategicArms Limitation Talks agreement is near. The suggested sale does not mark a worsening relationship between China and the Soviet Union so much as a change in China’s thinking about defence. China is embarking on a modernisation of its defence forces in the same way as it is embarking on a modernisation of its industries. Britain is keen to gain what it can out of both modernisation processes in China but does not want to jeopardise other negotiations with the Soviet Union. These circumstances suggest that Britain must play for more time before making a deal with China.