Three Nth Island seats may be strong pointer

Press, 22 November 1978, Page 33

Three Nth Island seats may be strong pointer

Ihe electorates

Three North Island seats, which have swung with the nation in the last two elections, could give a powerful pointer to the outcome of the General Election. Hamilton West and Taupo are marginally held National seats, while Hamilton East is classed as “fairly safe” for National. Politically Taupo is so finely balanced between National and Labour that since its creation it has almost invariably gone with the swing, and elected a member of whichever party took office. Until this election the three main factors for political candidates to consider were Tokoroa’s Labour voters, Taupo’s National supporters, and the farming vote. Taupo township, with its large population of retired businessmen and farmers, has traditionally given a solid backing to National. But the Labour votes in the industrial town of Tokoroa have generally outnumbered these. In the past, the key has been the farming vote, which has tended to even the score, and leave an almost perfectly balanced situation. But this year boundary changes have tightened the situation still further, end in the finely balanced situation, even a small Social Credit revival could have a big impact. Labour has, without doubt, benefited most from the boundary changes in Taupo, the most serious of which was to remove the southern half of Rotorua county into the new Tarawera seat. A rough assessment of the 1972 and 1975 votes under the new boundaries shows that Labour would have held a lead of about 1400 six years ago, to National’s 400 in the last election. The key to the result in Taupo will certainly be the nationwide swing. The Labour candidate this year will again be Mr J. W. Ridley, a former Rhodes scholar, and eminent New Zealand engineer, now a partner in an engineering consultancy company. The retirement of the somewhat controversial sitting National Member of Parliament, Mr R. J. La Varis, has opened the door for a Tokoroa broadcaster end mother of three sons, Mrs Lesley Miller, to make her first political foray. She and Mr Ridley present an interesting contrast, although both are well known and popular in Tokoroa. A dark horse in the race could be Mr J. Elder, a Tokoroa Borough Council member who is making his first venture into politics, on the Social Credit ticket. With three of the four candidates living in the timberlands town, Taupo voters may feel a bit neglected, and" this may be an asset to the fourth contestant. a Taupo Borough Council member, Mr W. B. Keys, who is standing for Values. Mr Keys’s candidature could be an embarrassment to National as for 16 years he worked for the Taupo branch of the party before resigning earlier this year over the Government’s actions in the West Taupo forests. Logging of the West Taupo forests is the main issue in the Values campaign, but the National and Labour candidates believe this is a secondary issue. Unemployment is of prime concern to Mrs Miller and Mr Ridley. Mr Elder believes that

after the Rangitikei byelection, Social Credit’s chances of winning Taupo have climbed at such a rate that they are now nearly as good as those of National or Labour. The four candidates provide as interesting a lineup as is probably to be found anywhere, and reflect the strong interest each of the four parties has in Taupo. Hamilton West and Hamilton East, two notorious swinging seats, may also be on the move again. The National Party holds both seats with tidy majorities, but Labour is confident that it has Hamilton West “in the bag” — and it believes it has a good chance with Hamilton East. Behind it all are the two considerations which will decide how things do go on November 25 — the power in the Social Credit punch, and the polling day leanings of the region’s • swinging youth vote. At the last election, more than half of the Hamilton population was under 25 years of age. According to National’s sitting member and candidate, Mr M. J. Minogue, this is a' growing proportion of politically cynical young people. “Anyone who does not recognise this is foolish,” he says. His well-documented stands on government secrecy, bureaucracy, and the economy highlight his philosophy that “there are only so many ways to tackle fundamental problems, no matter who is in power” and that many of them need a bi-partisan approach. With two election campaigns and a parliamentary' term behind her, the Labour candidate, Mrs Dorothy Jelicich, a Hamilton businesswoman, will

prove a formidable opponent. Mrs Jelicich, with the young electorate in mind, had emphasised Labour policies in tertiary training, appenticeship and access to housing. She said the political implications of an itinerant workforce gave Labour an edge in Hamilton 17/651. She believes Hamilton needs greater development of a sort needing more government support for local bodies. Issues affecting the young will be critically important in this election, she says — “we have one of the highest ratios of young people in the world.” She believes the lack of community facilities may only be remedied with a lot of help from the Government. Mr J. G. Barr, the Social Credit man in Hamilton West, will hammer what he calls lack of honest representation in Parliament. The views of too many people were being ignored, he said. As for his chances on November 25, he said Social Credit regarded Hamilton West as category two: “That means runner-up.” Mr S. Zanders, a draughtsman, is standing for Values in Hamilton West. He said that in his limited campaign so far, he had seen little to indicate Values support. In Hamilton East. Dr 1. J. Shearer (National) said he did not rate personal standing as pulline more than 1 per cent of the vote for any candidate. Nevertheless, his performance as a heavyweight on environmental issues is likely to attract youthful attention. He said Hamilton East was pretty much a “crosssection” electorate, with no predominant socioeconomic group.

He predicted a low poll mainly on the basis that his punishing schedule of canvassing had failed to produce many doorstep arguments. “There appear to be no prominent issues, even from traditional Labour voters.” Mrs L. Welch, his Labour opponent, is an enthusiastic newcomer who has been eager to sound out householders in the electorate and quick to seize limelight opportunities on issues of women’s rights, the electoral roll, and education. ' Mrs Welch puts the transport issue at the head of local concerns. Hamilton East had changed drastically since 1975, she said. With that change had come a greater readiness for women to vote for women. She said she would push for more community participation in education deci-sion-making at a local level. “Pockets of real poverty sprung up here, especially in high-density flats,” she said. “Many families are living in places they have grown out of.” On that score, she has been, unwittingly perhaps, supported by the Social Credit contender, Mrs L. F. Booth, who as a professional social worker has found a trend for more people in fewer homes. A former teacher who raised a family and then 10 years ago became a child welfare officer, Mrs Booth can make an impressive claim to firsthand knowledge of family problem areas. Her background and wide personal involvement may win her a lot of personality votes. The Values Party has been slow on the warpath in Hamilton East, and has made little impact yet on this electorate.