The electorates Palmerston North, Wairarapa Political tide would show first in these electorates

Press, 10 November 1978, Page 7

The electorates Palmerston North, Wairarapa Political tide would show first in these electorates

By

CEDRIC MENTIPLAY

4 \ /

[f another political spring-tide is atiout to overwhelm New Zealand voting opinion, it will show first in Palmerston North, and will confirm itself in electorates such as Wairarapa. A shadow movement towards Labour would change Palmerston North while' Wairarapa falling to Labour would imply a National Government in danger.

This is one reason why these very differently-con-stituted seats are of such importance. Another is that their boundaries have suffered surprisingly little change since 1975. The redistribution did not change Palmerston North or Wairarapa at all, so that the changes which concern us here are those taking place in the minds and viewpoints of the voters.

Palmerston IXortli

This electorate has a history of changing loyalties. A Labour majority of 1766 in 1972 was changed three years later to a National majority of 142, which fact indicates plainly enough that the slightest breath of dissatisfaction against the Government, or the slightest success in the operations of a third party, can change the result. Palmerston North is also in the general area in which Social Credit has made its greatest impact. In the last two General Elections the number of Social Credit votes in Palmerston North expanded from 694 to 1453. The Values support has been similarly impressive, growing from 676 votes in 3972 to 1378 in 1975. Whatever happens later this month will depend very greatly on how the minor parties are favoured. remembering that three years ago they took nearly 14 per cent of the total vote.

The successful National candidate, Mr J. L. Lithgow, has now had three years in Parliament to demonstrate his energetic approach to politics. He has brought his drive back into the electorate, strongly backed by Palmerston

North businessmen, and was the first to hit the electorate with a “personal report,” very early this year. His main opponent is Labour’s Mr J. A. Warding, a former Minister of Overseas Trade and one of the most effective Ministers in the Labour Government. He is also energetic — perhaps too much so for his own electoral good, for he has become involved in Labour’s “demolition squad,” which involves him in much work around New Zealand at a time when he might be better employed door-knocking in his own electorate. There could be some confusion in Labour thinking here. Joe Walding is not a strong platformpresence. His appeal is in direct personal contact

rather than in, set speeches and this nas shown during the squads appearances in other electorates.

It might be that Labour has taken Palmerston North too lightly. Local surveys have given contradictory results — one that Labour is 4 per cent ahead, another that National is 2 per cent ahead. With an error-margin of “5 plus 5” per cent, however, all that has been proven is that Palmerston North can go either way. Mr Lithgow has a bright forthcoming personality, is an avid doorknocker and personal-con-tact man, and has given himself a very strong profile — which means that he has drawn praise or criticism for every view expressed. He plans what he describes as “an effective finishing burst,” and comments cheerily: ‘‘Win, lose or draw, it will oe good for Palmerston North.”

But Labour’s organisation in Palmerston North is stronger than ever before. It has out-canvassed Mr Lithgow’s supporters, and is concentrating on “getting them to the pol-ling-booth." ,It is implied that in 1975 many potential Labour voters failed to record their preference.

The key to the Palmerston North result may be held by the Social Credit candidate, Mr P. Edmonds, who is a secondary school-teacher. He is a Roman Catholic and a keen member of the Society for the Protection of the Unborn Child (while Mr Lithgow is “liberal” on the abortion issue). This puts him in line with the thinking of Mr Walding (S.P.U.C.Catholic) — which means paradoxically that he could take Labour votes. Values also has a strong candidate in Mr G. Serralach, a Palmerston North city councillor and Massey University lecturer. He believes that issues like abortion will influence, voting — and that Values will attract more votes than Social Credit. Whether the decision of

the Labour leader. Mr W. E. Rowling to open his campaign in Palmerston North has had any influence is difficult to establish. but it does emphasise the political significance of the electorate. Wairarapa That a Labour majority of 1086 in Wairarapa in 1972 became a National lead of 1478 in 1975 does not entirely brand this basically rural electorate as a “swinging seat.” A chain of small towns and one larger one (Masterton) has given the electorate a potentially strong Labour area, which the Labour party chose to ignore in 1975.

The main National strength in the Wairarapa has come from its candidate and member, the former Maori footballer. Mr M.B. Couch. He has brought into the' Houst and the electorate a certain homespun effectiveness. Placards label the countryside as “Couch country,” and he spends much of his time in personal contact. For a new member ol Parliament he achieved some prominence with his chairmanship of the Committe on Violent Crime, and there are other aspects which lead to strong Wairarapa support for “our boy.”

Ben Couch himself has few political illusions. “In 1972 I went out with the tide,” he says. “I came in again in 1975, and it has been quite an experience. But if the tide turns, I'll go out again, I suppose.” He has no plans for a Cabinet post — only to be "a good member for as long as I’m wanted.”

The Labour challenger, as in 1975, is Mr A. Levett, aged 46, a lecturer in sociology and Asian studies at Victoria University. He is an effective speaker on social welfare and other issues, and admits to having some trouble in rousing the public consciousness. Mr Levett believes that there is a very large “undecided" percentage in the towns, and laments his difficulty in commit-

nicating with these people. His canvassers have found many people he would regard as potential Labour supporters, but who have been frankly anti-Labour. However, his canvassers have also found potential National supporters who will withhold their votes as long as Mr Muldoon leads that party. “All these people could

be voting Labour — if we can turn them out on voting day,” Mr Levett says.

Mr Levett has steadily gained experience. He stood unsuccessfully in the Pahiatua by-election last year, and since then he has bought a house in Masterton to offset his non-residence. He claims to have more than half of the Masterton vote, but nobody is yet calling him “our boy." The influence of the minor parties .on the Wairarapa vote is hard to assess. Social Credit claimed 6.2 per cent of the total vote in 1975, and Values 2.8 per cent. The Social Credit candidate is Mr W. Cowl, aged 46. a school bus-driver and rural postman working from Carterton. He hopes to double the number of votes he received in 1975 and believes that most of the new votes will come from Labour supporters. Values is represented by Mr C. Hackney, aged 33, a light-hearted candidate whom a Labour women’s group nominated as “entertainer of the year.” It is not clear whether Mr Hackney is campaigning for laughs or votes.

A quick unofficial survey of Wairarapa, however, suggests that this electorate is not as marginal as some people believe, that the anti-Gov-ernment pressure has not been evenly applied — and that Ben Couch will remain Wairarapa’s member of Parliament.