The Shah’s last card?

Press, 9 November 1978, Page 16

The Shah’s last card?

In appointing a military Cabinet, the Shah of Iran has probably played his last card. The imposition of strict martial law may produce a quieter Iran for a while, but it is unlikely that the quietness will last for long. One of the public demands has been for a share of political power and military rulers almost everywhere are disinclined to share political power. Possibly the Shah hopes that the officers appointed will stay loyal to him and like good soldiers, take their orders. But their orders will have to be nothing less than the reestablishment of order in Iran, by force if needed. If that fails, no further step is possible.

It may not fail; but even then the Shah has trouble on his hands. Having put the military in power, can he get rid of them? Like good soldiers they may go when they are told but he may not be able to dismiss them as easily as he dismissed the Government led by Mr Jaafar Sharif-Emmami. An orderly transfer of power looks extremely unlikely. This transfer may amount to a violent change in which those who last held power become the scapegoats, and may pay for their rule with their lives. If the military Cabinet foresees this, it will doubtless hold on to power. If the Shah hopes that he can make the military his eventual scapegoats himself, he may find the tables turned. Apart from that the central question is: how long will the military permit him to remain on the Peacock Throne if he stays the main focus of protest?

The task facing the new Cabinet is daunting. It must first restore the flow of oil. Without oil the economy of Iran is doomed. Persian carpets are the

second biggest item among exports. Iran’s economy is already in the doldrums. The strikes wracking Iran have been becoming more effective as people discover their power. Restoring order will not be easy and violence may flare again each Friday when people gather at the mosques. So far the Shah still speaks about corruption and the “mistakes of the past” as the causes of the troubles. But even such actions as arresting General Nematollah Nassiri, the former head of the security' service, seem unconvincing, for even after he left the service his files were available to the martial law administrators.

Internationally, the implications of what is happening in Iran are farreaching. Although Iran is the secondlargest oil producer in the world, most countries will be able to manage for a while without this supply. Saudi Arabia is producing oil far below its capacity and could maintain world oil supplies. Israel and South Africa may be the countries which will miss Iran’s supply most. The United States will be watching events with alarm, for not only has it sold an immense amount of arms to Iran, banking on the stability of the Shah’s regime, but it will fear Soviet interference and will want reassurance about future flows of oil.

The gutting of the British Embassy in Teheran shows that some of the demonstrations have taken a turn against foreigners. The New Zealand Embassy has apparently offered the use of its communication facilities to the British. New Zealanders have been advised to postpone visits to Iran. It seems doubtful whether anything approaching a normal situation will be seen in Iran for a long time.