Statisticians should be of some help

Press, 17 August 1978, Page 20

Statisticians should be of some help

Special Correspondent | Sydney The Statisticians have it all worked out: It is a good bet that a New Zealand-bred horse will win the next Melbourne Cup. But they add that, the chances of the winner being trained by an Australian are ever so much greater than the success going to a New Zealand mentor — that is a trainer with his Stables in New Zealand, for there are several former New Zealand men with powerful training establishments in Australia. The argument could be applied to the cups double, if it comes to that of the entries for the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup 28 per cent were foaled in New Zealand — 229 of them in the Caulfield Cup and 197 of them in the Melbourne Cup. Of the 24 cups going back to 1954. horses bred in New

Zealand have won 16, were second 17 times, third 8 times, and were fourth in 12 of the 17 cups that carried prize money for that position. Those races Carried stake money of $1,806,500 and the New Zealand breds won $1,234,600 of it, a staggering total. But Of the 16 winners only seven were actually prepared by New Zealand trainers. The belief in Australia that New Zealand trainers “set” horses for the Melbourne Cup a couple of seasons before the race is not widely held, not that there is anything against such programme, nor anything new about it. But from time to time the thought has been in hindsight that the Australian handicappers have more or less “invited” visits by the weight adjustments. Even Stevens was scarcely heard Of When he was handicapped as a five-vear-old at 7.8 in the Caulfield Cup and

1 7.9 in the Melbourne Cup, and what a mess he made Of both of those fields in 1962. He was scarcely an invitee, but he could have been the medium of a long distance plan! The idea always has been that the four-year-old with 141 b under weight-for-age is the real Melbourne Cup prospect; putting it in metrics the four-year-old with 51kg compared with the scale weight of 57kg. Well, take the group in the Melbourne Cup handicai ped 52kg down to 51kg; no fewer than 61 per cent of them were bred in New Zealand. Perhaps a better idea of the dominance of the New Zealand stayers in the field is given by the fact that of all horses handicapped at 51kg or more, 48 per cent were foaled in that country. It certainly makes it a good bet to get odds about nominating the birth country of the 1978 winner of the Melbourne Cup.