National races to ll p.c. lead

Press, 7 August 1978, Page 6

National races to ll p.c. lead

The National Party has an 11 per cent margin of sup-1 port over the Labour Party — mainly at the expense of; Social Credit and the Labour! Party has almost held its; ground. In May, National’s margin! over Labour was 3 per cent.] National’s 11 per cent mar-! gin in July has come from a: drop of 5 per cent in Social i Credit support and a drop of! 1 per cent each in the stand-1 ing of Labour and the; Values Party. The changes are shown by j the latest “New Zealand; Heralff’-National Research] Bureau poll, held between! Julv 15 and 22.

The 20 per cent of eligible voters who were classified! as uncommitted said that! they would not vote, or did! not know, or refused to say! which party they would vote; for. Tlte figure compares i with 20 per cent in .May and! with a non-vote of 17 per; cent in the 1975 election. The figures in the poll are subject tn a maximum statistical sampling error of plus or minus 2 per cent. The loyalty and switching patterns of current intending voters are:— Of 1975 National voters,] 89 per cent would remain loyal (compared with 84 per cent in May), 5 per cent would switch to Labour (4 per cent in May), 6 per cent to Social Credit (11 per cent) and none to Values (1 per cent).

Support for National is highest in the Christchurch provincial areas. among those aged 55 and older, and among women. It is lowest in Dunedin City, among those aged 18 to 24 and among men. Support for Labour is

The margins between National and Labour exactly match those recorded in the May and July before the 11975 election. Then, however. the total percentages! ; for the two parties were i higher because support for | Social Credit was about a ! third to a quarter of what it is today. By the time of the latest; poll, voters had been able to i reflect on the National ; Party's Budget for six or seven weeks. Labour’s tax (proposals — although can- ; vassed in broad terms — ;had not been published in Twenty per cent of eli-

lt Of 1975 Labour voters, 80 ‘per cent would remain loyal 1 :|(79 per cent in May), 7 per ; 11 cent would switch to Nat- < ! ional (5 per cent), 11 per ] jcent to Social Credit (14 per I I cent), and 2 per cent to I ! Values (1 per cent). ;< Of 1975, Social Credit ( : voters, 67 per cent would re- < main loyal (85 per cent in < May), 11 per cent would switch to National (5 per i cent), 19 per cent would 1 ; switch to Labour (8 per 1 : cent) and 3 per cent to : lvalues (1 per cent). 1 Of 1975 Values voters, 38 < per cent would remain loyal i ■ (30 per cent in May), 18 per s cent would switch to Nat- : ional (15 per cent), 26 per s cent would switch to Labour [ ■ (32 per cent) and 18 per t cent to Social Credit (23 per f cent). t

s; highest in Dunedin City,) i among those aged 35 to 441 , and among women. It is I ’ lowest in Auckland provin-! i cial areas, among those aged] t 25 to 34 and among men. i , Support for Social Credit; I is highest in Dunedin pro-; 1 vincial areas, among those !aged 18 to 24 and among! s 1 men. It is lowest in Christ-1

gible voters were uncommitted in July, and the proportion was the same in May. The figures in 1975 were 20 per cent in July and 16 per cent in May. The ”Herald”-N.R.B. poll covered 2000 eligible voters selected by random probability methods throughout New Zealand. People were asked: “If an election had been held yesterday, which party would you have voted for?” The following table compares their responses with the findings of previous polls and with the result of the 1975 election.

Of the new voters — those who have become eligible to vote since the 1975 election — 43 per cent support National (39 per cent in May), 32 per cent support Labour (34 per cent), 15 per cent support Social Credit (22 per cent) and 10 per cent support Values (5 per cent). Of the eligible non-voters in 1975 who would now vote, 39 per cent support National (26 per cent in May), 33 per cent support Labour (42 per cent), 22 per cent support Social Credit (24 per cent) and 6 per cent support Values (8 per cent). Present party supporters, and the 20 out of every 100 polled who constitute the uncommitted group, voted as follows (read downwards) in the 1975 General Election:—

ichurch city, among those | aged 55 and older and] (among women. ! Support lor Values is (highest in Dunedin city, (among those aged 18 to 24 land among men. i The sex and age characteristics of present party J supporters and the uncomImitted group are:—

July ’78 % May ’78 /O Mar. '78 % Jan. ’78 % Nov. ’77 % May ’77 % Nov. ’76 % May ’76 % Nov ’75 Election National 47 40 41 45 48 42 46 44 48 Labour 36 37 31 37 37 42 40 41 40 Scored 14 19 22 13 9 9 9 8 7 Values 3 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 5 All others — — 1 — 1 1 — — —

1975 VOTE National Labour Socred Values Uncommitted % % % % % National 75 5 16 4 18 Labour 5 72 26 14 18 Socred 9 4 31 3 1 Values 1 3 J) 41 4 All others — — — —— —— Didn’t vote 8 7 12 10 45 New voters 9 9 10 28 14

National Labour Socred Values Uncommitted % 1 % % 42 % Women 50 51 46 54 Men 50 49 54 58 46 18-24 year o!ds 14 20 26 48 25 25-34 year olds 20 19 25 30 24 35-44 year olds 16 18 15 9 15 45-54 year olds 17 15 13 17 55 + year olds 33 28 21 6 19 Copyright 1978 — The “New Zealand Herald”