Ogaden war ‘over in months’

Press, 6 March 1978, Page 9

Ogaden war ‘over in months’

NZPA Nairobi Ethiopia is expected within two weeks to launch a gigantic military offensive against Somali forces in the Ogaden Desert, diplomatic sources have said in Nairobi. The Ethiopian leader, Lieutenant-Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam, has predicted that his troops will roll the Somalis back to their own borders, and his top foreign affairs adviser has vowed the war will be over in “months and not years.” Independent military observers agreed that with the full backing of the Soviet Union and 11.000 Cuban combat troops, it was only- a matter of time before Ethiopia gained most of its Ogaden Desert, a vast, semiarid region the size of Britain. But they predicted a sporadic guerrilla war would probably continue in the southern Ogaden wastelands for several years. After being routed by a -urprise Somali blitzkrieg last July and pushed back to the northern and western fringes of the Ogaden, the Ethiopians last autumn ral-

ii lied around the northern towns of Dire Dawa and - Harar. a Since then, Ethiopia has ? marshalled a massive army » of some 120.000 soldiers and c brought in the Cuban troops . and one billion dollars worth .of Soviet weaponry, ini'eluding nearly 200 tanks and 1 50 MiG fighters. ? Addis Ababa has also put i ;the war effort under the i direction of a three-star Soi viet general in the capital i and three Russian majorgenerals near the front, - according to United States e intelligence reports. t After a limited probing i offensive around Dire Dawa Land Harar in late January. - Ethiopia is expected to s launch its big drive within,l - the next two weeks in the - northern Ogaden, according 1 to reports. I -i In Nairobi, Colonel Men- ‘ I gistu’s foreign affairs » adviser. Major Berhanu Bayi, c s'told reporters that it would I take “only months and not ] II years” to fulfil Colonel Men- < gistu’s prediction earlier this 1 > week that his troops would i L drive out the Somalis. < Major Bayi was on his 1 -iway back from Lagos, where i

he told the Nigerian leader, Lieutenant-General Olusegun Obasangjo;' that any peace talks with Somalia would be “fruitless.” “The only Course left is to continue the war,” he added. The diplomatic sources predicted that the Ethiopian offensive would sweep through and behind the mountains in the northern Ogaden, capture the Somaliheld town of Jijiga a few miles east of Harar and rush

for the border within a mat-' ter of months. Because of the flat, feature-! less terrain the area can be over-run within weeks, asj the Italians and British dis-1 covered in the Abyssinian; War and World War 11. Both! Ethiopia and her main sup-1 porter, the Soviet Union,! have pledged not to encroach on Somali territory but some Western sources! have doubted whether they; will honour this undertaking, j Mogadishu radio reported! yesterday that an attack in-; volving more than 70 tanks airlifted by helicopters had been launched on the town , of Jijiga, the main prize , taken by Somali forces in;! the Ogaden war. (. •,‘i The radio, quoting a re-l( n I port from the Western So-; e malia Liberation Front, said! e there had been more than!] 100 bombing raids in the;, o area in the past two days,! . and very heavy fighting wasl ( s raging on the outskirts ofj. i Jijiga. ■> The W.S.L.F. report said: ( e “The attack has been , i mounted only by Russian . - and Cuban personnel, with < 7 no sign of Ethiopian troops r so far on the battlefield.” i