U.S. sanctions Intended to keep Soviets out of S.A.’

Press, 1 November 1977, Page 8

U.S. sanctions Intended to keep Soviets out of S.A.’

PA Washington The American National Security Adviser (Mr Zbigniew Brzezinski) has said that tightened American sanctions ' against South Africa are aimed in part at avoiding a Soviet “intrusion” that could fuel the racial conflict and trigger a big power confrontation.

The Presidential adviser emphasised in a TV interview that there was no evidence that the Soviets plan to become involved in the black struggle for majority rule.

He noted, for example, the Soviet Union’s attitude toward the tense Middle East situation had changed because of the constant threat of a “strategic confrontation” and Soviet leaders “are now coming around to the view that a settlement may indeed be more desirable than a stalemate.”

“But I’d like to avoid situations in which they ma" be tempted to become involved,” he said, referring to South Africa. He continued: “To be perfectly blunt, I think there’s always a danger that . . .

the Soviet Union may be tempted to adopt policies and to take actions which would exacerbate and would fuel conflicts. “And therefore it is in the interests of everyone concerned to take corrective measures soon enough. This is why we feel that sanctions are necessary, and this is why we feel that too many sanctions on too grand a scale could be counterproductive.” Hard-line embargoes demanded by three black African nations at the United Nations are likely to be vetoed by Western nations in Security Council votes this week, but a mandatory arms embargo sought in a West-

e r n-sponsored resolution being worked out behind the scenes is likely to be passed. The United States last week tightened its embargo on shipments of arms and even spare parts to South Africa, brought its ambassador home from Pretoria for consultations, and threatened further sanctions if the white-ruled Government did not take measures to accommodate black demands.

Administration military experts believe South Africa’s defence establishment will have little trouble coping with a tightened United States arms embargo, except for a bit more difficulty getting spare parts. The white-ruled nation, which has been building toward self-sufficiency in recent years, will probably be able to obtain those parts and will have no difficulty remaining more than a match for any military force black African nations could

muster against it, according to the experts’ assessment. And despite the recent flap oyer the possibility that South Africa might be on the verge of nuclear testing, well-informed sources said that the nation is not believed to have enough nuclear material to build even a small nuclear arms stockpile. South Africa now spends an estimated S4OOM abroad each year for weapons out of a total defence budget of about SI9OOM. Since 1968 it has been developing its own State-owned arms production industry. In New York at the weekend, the United States Ambassador to the United Nations, said that he personally would favour an absolute ban on American shipment of nuclear fuel to South Africa but it was too late for that to be a realistic possibility. In an interview on American television, Mr Young said, that South Africa had achieved “nuclear potential the extent of which we’re not fully able to judge.” Mr Young said: “To cut things off now would only encourage separate development of South Africa’s own nuclear potential. I think by maintaining some kind of relationship, we do have the possibility of influencing them to sign the nuclear proliferation treaty and accepting all the safeguards that go with the International Atomic Energy Agency.”