Election tangle in Israel

Press, 26 February 1977, Page 12

Election tangle in Israel

The campaign is now building up in Israel towards a General Election put forward to May 17 from November, when the normal Parliamentary term would have expired. Emphasis will no doubt be on the state of the country rather than on the restoration of political tranquillity in the Middle East as a whole, even if the urgency of that peace cannot be overlooked. The Prime Minister, Mr Yitzhak Rabin, will again lead the Labour Party in a bid for the renewal of his office, in spite of a strong challenge at the party conference from his Defence Minister. Mr Shimon Peres. Mr Rabin deliberately chose to test the feeling of the voters ahead of time, and he dismissed from his Cabinet three members of the National Religious Party—participants in the ruling coalition—because of that party’s failure to support him in a confidence vote. The Government survived the vote, but needs to reinforce its voting strength in the Knesset Although its future relationship with Labour has yet to be clarified, the N.R.P. may no longer be a reliable partner in a coalition.

A top-ranking member of the Labour Party, Mr Asher Yadlin. is in prison, having been found guilty of accepting bribes; another, Mr Avraham Ofer, who held office as Minister of Housing, committed suicide when allegations of bribe-taking were made against him. Such events wrapped the dissolution decision in something odiously resembling a Watergate mantle. Regardless of that, Mr Rabin is expected to win office again narrowly, although he will have to produce persuasive evidence of his ability to tackle effectively the related problems of a lagging economy, growing unemployment. mounting industrial unrest, and an inflation rate hovering dangerously around 30 per cent.

For Mr Rabin the situation has been further confused by the emergence of a third major challenger for office, the new Democratic Movement for Change, led by a volatile intellectual, Professor Yigal Yadin. Although Professor Yadin is a relative newcomer to top-action politics, his intervention has already widened the split in the Labour Party by attracting a number of influential sodalists who say that they no longer regard the parent party as an effective instrument for social and political reform.

The full , effects of this intrusion are not yet measurable. An obvious consequence is that the May election, instead of being a more-or-less straight fight between Labour and the main Right-wing opposition group. Likud, will now be fought among three party groups. Professor Yadin became widely known as an archaeologist: but he also has the distinction of having fallen out, over a period of nearly three decades, with three Prime Ministers. A thrusting ambition brought him mto conflict with Mr David Ben-Gurion, the founder of the republic; he quarrelled with Mr Levi Eskol: and then he was at odds with Mr Rabin’s predecessor, Mrs Golda Meir. Mrs Meir expressed the somewhat acid judgment that he would have been better employed exploring the past than probing the future. The professor’s Change party may poll significantly and could be a nuisance to whoever has the task of forming a new government.

Professor Yadin has said, moreover, that he will not join either Labour of Likud in a coalition. If he sticks to that resolve, and wins 10 or a dozen seats, the election may produce a result embarrassingly close to stalemate. Time will unravel the riddle of this hurried poll—decided on by Mr Rabin perhaps largely to deny Professor Yadin time to organise and find a solid place for his party in the electorate.

Whatever happens, the outcome of the election is not likely to mean any relaxation in the search for a durable Middle East peace. Mr Rabin has said, reasonably, that an early election should enable Israel to stabilise relations with the new Administration in Washington. President Carter is keen to assist in the making of peace, and Mr Rabin has said that he hopes the election will give him the mandate to resume negotiations with vigour and purpose.

So far, Mr Rabin has preferred to avoid the West Bank issue, including Palestinian aspirations. He also has to take into account a majority feeling in his party that the Jerusalem area and a strategic strip along the Jordan River, at present occupied by Israel, are not negotiable. It is difficult to see Egyptian agreement, or Arab acceptance generally, to any peace settlement on such terms.