Yugoslavia sharpens resistance claws

Press, 23 November 1976, Page 20

Yugoslavia sharpens resistance claws

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The initial task is to destroy 2000 tanks of an invading army. If that objective fails, Yugoslavia will create thousands of defensive “hedgehogs" to tie dow- as many enemy troops as possible in an exhausting guerrilla warm This is the basic blueprint for defence of this Balkan country of 21 million people as it prepares for the uncertain period after Marshal Tito, founder of modern Yugoslavia, is no longer on the scene. Tito, aged 84, is suffering from a liver ailment His death is likely to create internal and external pressures on the Yugoslav mosaic of six federated republics and two autonomous regions.

Although the Yugoslav military doctrine stresses defence “against all points of the compass” there is no -doubt that the Soviet Union is regarded as the only potential invader. The military planners realise that their chances of successfully challenging a super-Power on the battlefield are minimal. But they seem determined to turn the country into a military quagmire, assuming that sooner or later external factors might intervene in Yugoslavia’s favour. The policy now is “all people’s defence” — a concept under which three million Yugoslav men and women would be eventually mobilised for a variety of defensive tasks. Some 2000 factories are to be transformed into self-contained bastions. Mobile territorial intervention units have been formed in all regions, equipped with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. Although the nationalities comprising ' the Yugoslav

ANDREW BOROWIEC in Belgrade

federation are divided on a number of political and economic issues, foreign observers generally agree that in the event of an external threat the country would pull together. Last September Yugoslavia flexed its military muscle in a large military exercise, “Golija 76.” The manoeuvres centred on the rugged mountain plateau where the republics of Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia meet and where Tito’s partisans fought during World War 11. A laconic communique termed the manoeuvres a success, but no additional details were made public. The country’s mobilisation is being prepared in detail and with determination. The

preparations affect not only men of military age, but women, schools and various “socio-economic units” of Titoist Yugoslavia. Tl?e concept of “all people’s defence” was formulated in the wake of the 1968 Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia. One of the authors of the doctrine is General Mirko Vranic. His plan calls for the mobilisation of a regular army of some 600,000 men to provide the initial shield, to be supplemented by a larger citizens’ army organised in various republics and autonomous regions. The forces are to be interchangeable, waging a war vacillating between regular operations and guerrilla action. Needless to say, the Soviet Union is rarely if ever identified as a potential enemy. In spite of their differences with Moscow, the Yugoslavs are extremely careful not to offend Russian sensitivities. Four years ago, a Czech-

oslovak defector, General Jan Sejna, revealed that there is a Soviet military plan for the invasion of Yugoslavia. Such an invasion would be triggered by Yugoslavia’s internal difficulties and perhaps an “invitation" by the pro-Soviet underground forces under the pretext of the need to save the country’s socialism. According to General Sejna, the Soviet plan “Polarka” would involve a pincer movement of Warsaw Pact armies from Hungary in the north and Bulgaria in the south. General Sejna even claimed that the Russians might envisage violating Austria’s neutrality to facilitate a swift movement of armoured columns toward the Lubejana Gap. Simultaneous airborne attacks were to be launched against Belgrade, Zagreb, Skopje and other cities of the federation.

The disclosure speeded up the -reorganisation of the Yugoslav defence system and resulted in the transfer of many regular army reservists to territorial units with local guerrilla tasks.

The doctrine is heavily influenced by the record of successful guerrilla actions against the Germans and Italians during the last war. At the height of the war, Tito’s guerrilla forces numbered some 400,000 men and were tying down 22 Axis divisions (German, Austrian, Italian, Hungarian and Bulgarian).

The generals who drew up the popular defence concept are all graduates of the tough partisan school. Some foreign observers, however, point out that the defensive factors have changed radically since the 19405. During the past 25 years Yugoslavia has changed from a Balkan

rural country into a semiindustrial society with large cities. Mountain villages — stronghold of Tito’s partisans — are no longer inaccessible. More than 50 per cent of the population lives in the cities, hardly defensible in any guerrilla war. Another drawback is the fact that at any given time

some one million Yugoslavs are employed as migrant workers in Western Europe, particularly in West Germany. Most of them are able-bodied men with a varitey of skills. Tito himself said that these “guest workers” could represent three sizable armies.

At present the regular Yu-

goslav Army represent* mainly training cadres for reservists. It has some 190,000 men in the army plus 20,000 each in the air force and navy.

The territorial force has a nucleus of 3000 instructors and at this stage is capable of expanding within 48 hours. The ultimate target is three million Yugoslavs under the colours or participating in the defence in auxiliary units. All territorial reservists have uniforms and field equipment at home. Weapons and ammunition for the most part are stored in easily accessible depots. Call-ups and night exercises are constant.

Yugoslavia manufactures some 85 per cent of its military equipment, including light jet aircraft capable of landing and take-off from short airstrips and small patrol and torpedo boats* The country still relies, however, on the Soviet Union for such sophisticated equipment as guided missiles. The infantrymans basic equipment has been reduced to the barest minimum. The assault rifle of Yugoslav make is light and easy to handle. However, standardisation of equipment has not reached the army or air force: Yugoslavia still has a diversified assembly of Soviet and Western tanks and planes. The army plays an important political role in the country and is generally regarded as the guarantor of Titoism after Tito’s death. Thirty-two high Communist Party posts are occupied by generals. All staff officers are party members and the national distribution of senior command posts has been equalised among various national groups.—O.F.N.S., Copyright.