The Republicans’ choice

Press, 27 July 1976, Page 16

The Republicans’ choice

Whoever is chosen Republican nominee for the Presidency of the United States may have trouble overtaking Mr Carter, the Democrats' choice. The Republican convention does not meet until after the middle of August and although Mr Ford appears to have a slight lead over Mr Reagan in support among delegates to the convention, he does not have the majority he needs to be sure of the nomination. He cannot yet begin campaigning effectively against Mr Carter What form the final campaign will take will remain uncertain until after the Republican nomination is settled What form the handful of uncommitted delegates want it to take may help them make up their minds between the two contenders. Supporters of both Mr Ford and Mr Reagan agree that the CarterMondale ticket can be assailed as unacceptably “ liberal ” for all true conservatives. On some foreign policy questions—the Panama Canal for example, and Rhodesia—Mr Ford has shown himself more moderate and responsible than Mr Reagan. But on many other issues Mr Ford has been trying to outdo Mr Reagan in appeal to conservative voters.

Even so, if the Republican Party decides to attack the Democratic ticket as being too far to the Left and to attack Washington and the machinery of government in the campaign, Mr Reagan will probably be preferred. Mr Ford has long been identified with Washington, and having been named to high office by Mr Nixon may be a hard incubus to shrug off. Mr Ford has said, repeatedly and specifically, that he believes the federal government is too big and that powers and money should be handed back to the states: but this has not been enough to dispel the impression that Mr Reagan would be a better standard bearer in an antiWashington campaign. But if the Republicans want to fight the Presidential election as a party of

responsibility and experience, the nomination should go to Mr Ford. Against Mr Carter and Mr Mondale. Mr Ford could campaign, perhaps effectively. as the only candidate with experience in foreign affairs. Although even his experience has been brief and limited. Mr Ford’s known approach may count for something when others’ policies are unclear. During the primary campaigns. Mr Reagan has simplified and distorted crucial issues in American foreign policy to such an alarming degree that even committed conservatives should be questioning his suitability for the office of President. Mr Ford is a dull campaigner, Mr Reagan can be an electrifying one. The Republicans are likely, all the same, to have enough political sense to realise that much of Mr Reagan’s rhetoric cuts little ice with the majority of Americans who are not members of the Republican Party.

Mr Ford’s slight edge among the delegates, and the calculation that he would almost certainly do better than Mr Reagan against Mr Carter in a national poll should boost his chances at the convention. Mr Reagan’s candidacy might even lead to defections of Republican moderates from the G.O.P.’s ranks. Mr Ford is behind Mr Carter in the latest polls, but much can change in the three months before the final vote is taken. Mr Ford’s failure to rout Mr Reagan in the primaries seems surprising. He is presiding over an America no longer riven by such questions as Vietnam and Watergate, and the American economy is picking up. These may yet prove to be powerful assets for Mr Ford, if it is he who carries the Republican banner against Mr Carter. In the race for the Republican nomination, the odds appear to favour Mr Ford, and in the race for the Presidency itself the odds against him may not be as long as they seem to be at present.