Worried silence in Natal

Press, Volume CXVI, Issue 34087, 26 February 1976, Page 17

Worried silence in Natal

(By

JEROME CAMINADA,

of "The Times," through N.Z.P.A.)

DURBAN. Feb. 25. j Angola has been( dropped as the automatic topic of conversation among whites in Natal, but its place has not. as might be ex-! peeled, been taken openly by Rhodesia. There is usually simply a worried silence because people do not know what to say about; Rhodesia. Angola was a fresh name, and a novel situation involv-j ing Russians and Cubans.< Most South Africans believe that the Union for Total In-; dependence of Angola (Unital, Zambia, Zaire, and the Ivory Coast asked their Government to intervene, and that the Government thought it had received some American assurances beforehand. But even those who accent this do not see how a similar situation could in any way apply in Rhodesia, and thev fervently hope that it will not.

The crucial question to ♦hem now. amid the latest shifting sands between Mr lan Smith’s Government in Salisbury' and the Rhodesian

Africans, the British Govern-1 ment and the South African; Government, is whether this; really is Mr Smith’s last! chance for a constitutional I agreement, and whether.; without agreement, and per-j haps even with one, guer-l rilla activity might engulf' Rhodesia. A South African response; to both parts of this question is mostly disbelief: Mr Smith has been told so many times that his last chance was at hand, and that, if he did not come to terms, the alternative would be war. South Africans are impatient with him, yet they also sympathise when he i speaks of psychological pressures being put on him. They wonder why the guerrillas (have not struck more posij tively already, if they have the means to apply extra I pressure. Trying calmly to analyse all the possibilities. South I Africans begin with Mozambique, which is a neighbour jof Natal, the Transvaal and Rhodesia, and is a face-down card in the game of poker. Mozambique is regarded as being unsettled internallv. but economically it coi operates, so businessmen here j believe, to the point of allowing South Africans to help in getting goods moving quickly

on the railways and in the, ports. Last week, the "Daily! News” in Durban published : a report from Salisbury under I the headline: “Closer Look! lat that Terror Threat.” If I [was written by two men. one! 1 white and one an African.. It estimated that there, (were about 15.000 black ex-1 lies from Rhodesia in Mo-! zambique, but this included old men, women, and children. Men with some fighting experience and military novices were put at not more than 5000. The exodus from Rhodesia, the report said, reached its [height in a recruiting drive by detainees who had been freed and. although this recruiting ring was broken a vear ago. by then about 2000 blacks had crossed the border ■hto training camps. There they were frustrated Iby lack of arms, training, /ood, supnlies. and shelter, but the guerrillas, in spite lof heavv losses, still had an appeal for much of the Rhoblack population. This report would not chill either white South Africans or Rhodesians, but it did not. of course, take into account ‘ the possibility of Cubans with

Russian arms appearing on the scene. This they would have to do

.through Mozambique, be-1 cause Zambia would scarcely! allow them to cross from An-j gola to her Rhodesian bor-i der, and South Africa would; [make sure that thev did not! filter through the Caprivi! (strip. South Africans do not rule, (out the possibility of Cubans (being shipped to Mozam-I Ibique, but at present they! think it unlikely. Britain’s possible role is! viewed even more hazily. Talks of it giving Rhodesian whites guarantees in a settlement are not regarded as practicable, if they involve I their future political rights, because South Africans do not see how Britain could honour such gurantees. Britain, it is thought, could only underwrite any financial offers to white Rhodesians, but there has been no sign that the Rhodesian settlers are willing to be bought out.

So the puzzle remains

(Dozens of businessmen were lout at lunch-time in Durban (today, running, as thev do [every dav. in just shorts and shoes, firmlv believing that this keens the body well and equips them to deaf with their troubles in the afternoon. But. as one remarked to

me yesterday, in the evening and early morning, Rhodesia is still there.