The first round in New Hampshire

Press, Volume CXVI, Issue 34087, 26 February 1976, Page 16

The first round in New Hampshire

The bell has rung after the first round of the American Presidential election, but forecasting what will happen later in the year has been made no easier. In the Republican race Ronald Reagan is running neck and neck with President Ford. Mr Ford was hoping for a clear-cut win and when he has all the benefits of being in office a succession of minor losses or even minor victories must be considered as a bad sign for him. Although Mr Reagan could count on some advantages in New Hampshire that he will not be so sure of elsewhere. President Ford’s showing has not been strong. In the Democratic race, the former Governor of Georgia, Mr Jimmy Carter, has confirmed his claim to be the front-runner, but others are still on his heels.

New Hampshire is one of the smallest states in the American Union and is so distinctive that the votes cast in its primary elections cannot provide an accurate guide to how the votes will fall in the primaries in other states. A victory in New Hampshire can secure for a candidate, at most, less than 1 per cent of delegates’ supnort in each of the nominating conventions later in the year Yet no contender for the Presidency since the Second World War has won the Presidency without first scoring a victory in the New Hamnshire primarv

New Hampshire’s reputation as a bell-wether state may be harmed. For unless Mr Carter can beat Governor George W’allace in the Florida primary on March 9. his success in New Hampshire will count for little. If either Mr Ford or Mr Reagan wins a clear lead in Florida the significance of the New’ Hampshire results will be diminished.

The New Hampshire primary, however, cannot be dismissed out of hand. It has usually been just as important for killing off campaigns as for boosting them along, and some of the Democratic hopefuls may have difficulty in recovering from the blows dealt to them this week. Neither Mr Fred Harris nor Mr Sargent Shriver can expect to continue in the race long unless spectacular successes in Massachusetts on March 2 offset their poor showing in NewHampshire Mr Carter's lead is not decisive enough to snuff out the campaigns of Mr Morris Udall or Mr Birch Bavh Had Mr Carter managed to eliminate these two from the race he could have faced the Florida primary with greater confidence, for there he will have to make a good showing against Mr Wallace and Senator Henry Jackson as well. The last of the primaries will not be held until June 8. The directions of the political wind will be known by then; but the first straws thrown up in New Hampshire have fallen without giving a clear idea of which way the winds are blowing now.