PACKING A NEW PUNCH IRAN'S NEIGHBOURS WORRIED BY MILITARY POWER DRIVE

Press, Volume CXV, Issue 33917, 9 August 1975, Page 14

PACKING A NEW PUNCH IRAN'S NEIGHBOURS WORRIED BY MILITARY POWER DRIVE

Bn

EDWARD COCHRAN

in r/ic "Guardian. i

‘ Reprinted by arrangement i Merely being an emperor does not make the Shah of Iran ..; imperialist, but his headlong drive for military power is making I - neighbours very uneasy. He has bluntly stated his determination that •ran should be the fifth most powerful nation in the world bv 1990, wher the oil begins to run out. Strictly in terms of military power, he mat already possess by the mid-eighties, larger and better-equipped conventional armed forces than anyone else except the United States the Soviet Union and China.

Besides the headline-catch-ing arms deals like the re-| cent purchase of another 800| Chieftain tanks from Britain; for about $650 million. I (smaller purchases occur! almost monthly. In February, Iran bought six Boeing 747 jumbo jetsj from TWA. for conversion into troop and cargo carry-1 ing planes for its air force. | In March it bought a complete Ibex electronic in-telligence-gathering system, which could cost $325 million from Rockwell Inter-1 nation. During April, the Shah an-] nounced that Iran was again; buying large quantities of! Soviet armoured personnel; carriers and artillery (and! stressed that he was doing; [ so specifically to remind em-I | bargo-happy American Con-; gressmen that Iran could goj elsewhere). On June 9 the| Iranian navy bought its first [ three submarines (of post-; ! war Tang class) from the [United States for an undisIclosed price. e Using its position as the -[largest potential market for I imported advanced weapons, Iran has bullied its way to (the front of delivery schedules. Where necessary it has even provided financial sup-: port to firms developing weapons which it particus|larly wanted. i; Britain, for example, 45 Chieftain tanks Ufrom British Army units in J i Germany in order to start t (earlier deliveries on the t original Iranian order for e!780 Chieftains. Iran has s[ managed to get a bigger 11share of the monthly pro-' g duction of both FI4A Tomi ;.|Cat fighters ($l3 million! n.each) and AH-IJ attack heli-, yj copters than was originally I ;t; envisaged. It has lent money] si to Grumman, which is build-' - ing the swing-wing F-14, and; y’ has financed the British Air-! s craft Corporation’s Rapier] -(missile air defence system.

Tank strength Iran’s present and immedi;ately impending orders will] bring its modern tank strength near to the 3000! mark (or past, it, if in addition to 800 more Chieftains Iran orders more Scorpion | light tanks from Britain). By I the early 1980 s, if Iran continues ordering at the pace! of the last few years — and

, there is every reason to Ithink it will — the total! [tank strength max well be imore than 5000. That is as [many as are owned by Britlain, France and Italy combined. The mam strength of thi Iranian air force at present; is 100 F-4 Phantoms and 1001 F-5A fighter bombers, which already give it an unquestionable air superiority in the Persian Gulf. But it inow taking deliveries on 70 more Phantoms and 140 more F-5E fighter bombers, and starting next year will' be receiving three or four! IF-14s a month to add to a! [total that now stands at 80. Iran is also planning to! ibuy about 250 of the latest) [“lightweight” air superiority! I fighters to supplement its [“heavy” F-14s, and 40 more; (attack aircraft (A-7s or iA-IOs). The total in six or; [seven years will probably be) over 800 modern combat air-! craft, and an air force that I is fourth in the world in numbers, third in technical! sophistication. The 640-plus helicopters, Iran now possesses or has! on firm order will comprise! the largest military helicopter force outside the super Powers, and most of them are intended to equip al “Sky-Cavalry Brigade” of assault troops (202 AH-IJ Twin Cobra gunships and 287 Huey Pius transport). Fifteen "hundred American civilians are assisting in the training, including “the last 15 years of retirees from Fort Rucker” (the United; States army aviation centre) in Alabama headed by its former commanding general). Iran already polices the (shallow waters of the Gulf I with the largest naval hovercraft fleet in the world, [and the navy is planned to ■ quadruple in the next five! I years. A new naval/air base is being built at Chah Bahar on the Arabian Sea, near the [Pakistan border, and six large new Spruance class; ! destroyers are on order from) I the United States at $45 mil-; lion each. They are to be the foundation of a deep-sea! navy that will have no local; rival in the Indian Ocean exIcept India: maritime patrol! aircraft, submarines and, : anti-submarine vessels are] being acquired apace. Crash programme It is a breathtaking crash! programme of military ex-j pansion. Iran can afford it I with her vast oil wealth: defence expenditure this, year will be only 28 per cent of her budget. Training! ■ the weapons operators is the | 'hard part but it is being] :done by brute money. The (total foreign technical com-' ) munity in Iran is about ■ 20,000, and may reach 50,000 by 1980; a high proportion are involved in training Irainians 'in military-related skills. Why is Iran creating this enormous military force? The Shah’s statements on his motives largely agree [with the evidence of the kinds of military hardware he is buying, and the geopolitical realities of Iran’s situation.

Eighty-five per cent of the non-Communist world's seaborne crude oil passes through the Per-lan Guli i and Iran's prosperity is as dependent on that continuing flow as is’ Europe's or Japan’s Iranian naval expansion. both in the Gull ■ and the Indian Ocean, is in tended to protect' the <e.i arteries of its prosperity. The large specialised c o u n t e r-insurgency force Iran is creating is intended [to prevent guerrillas Ilk [those in Southern Oman 'from reaching any point [overlooking the Persian Gulf, from which they could threaten the vulnerable o: [traffic. (There is an Iranian (contingent in Oman aiding 'the Sultan at the moment). The assault troops migh • also be needed sometime nIran's own border areas [almost all of which are in- | habited by minority nat | ionalities that spill acresthe frontiers. (Iran has ! recently been aiding Pakistan in suppressing a revolt among the Baluchis livin. on the far side of the front |ier). What Iran would do i a radical regime got legiti mate power in a Gu' sheikhdom is not clear. Im ,at least it has no territork ambitions against them.

Real nightmare The Shah’s real nightma' is that he might one day !>■ left alone to face a Sovie challenge by a United Statethat has withdrawn int< isolationism or suffered ar ■ internal political breakdown Iranian-Soviet relations have been good for more than a decade, but the Shah still remembers the Soviet attempt to grab Azerbaijan Province after the Second World Wai He also fears that the West is now in serious decline

The Shah is building ar Iranian armed force that within 10 years will be able, he hopes to deter the Soviet Union single-handed It would do this by requir■ing the commitment of an [ unacceptably high propor tion of Soviet forces to I overcome, given other Russian security worries in Eur i ope and China, like a conventional deterrent. No other [opponent or combination in the entire region would need ( anything like 4000 or 5000 tanks to deal with, nor do you need F-14s unless you [think you might have to (deal with Russian MiG 25s lin large numbers. Iran has signed the nu|C I e a r non-proliferation [treaty, but it could be that i its defence policy will eventually lead it to consider nu ■ clear weapons. Britain France, and China, which 1 have constructed similar me dium-power deterrent forces directed against the Soviet Union, have all found the nuclear element indispensable.

Under the Shah, Iran is a * fairly stable element in the ’ international system, but he i is, after all, only a 55-year-old mortal man, with many : enemies. What sort of regime might some day sue ceed him. in an Iran which has become a Great Power, iis unpredictable.