Mr Arafat’s fantasy

Press, Volume CXIV, Issue 33728, 28 December 1974, Page 12

Mr Arafat’s fantasy

The leader of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, Mr Yasser Arafat, is indulging a fantasy when he suggests a plot by Israel and the United States for Israel to launch a heavy attack against Syria and southern Lebanon while the United States seizes Arab oil wells However much the crude simplicity of such a design might appeal to the most aggressive hawks in the United States, or elsewhere in a world fearing energy shortages, the plan would be impracticable because the short-term effects would be too unpredictable. One result might be a nuclear war. The long-term effects can be foreseen only as being troublesome to an insupportable degree. The United States would have none of it. Unfortunately, the fantasy may appear to be less incredible to some in Arab countries who have a will to believe in such notions. Mr Arafat was not merely projecting a fantasy, but he was making propaganda; and the propaganda may eventually make war. He does not have on his own the making of war propaganda. Speculation on another Middle East war is rife, and threatening statements are exchanged almost daily. The possibility that the region will talk itself into another war cannot be discounted. The propaganda is only part of it. Bombings in Israel, and Israeli attacks in Lebanon, are increasing; Syria is reported to have built up its military supplies from the Soviet Union, and Egypt hopes soon to obtain more supolies from the same source. As attacks and counter-attacks intensify, and as the military caoabilities increase, so the possibility of full-scale war, either intentional or accidental, increases.

War has been made more likely because the fighting abilities of the Arabs have improved since the 1967 war. and the position of the P.L.O. has been strengthened by its recognition by all Arab Governments as the sole representative of the Palestinian peonies and by its treatment in the United Nations. The risk of war has also been increased because the attitudes of several major nations, particularly the United States, towards Israel has been modified since the oil crisis. In the Yom Kippur war of October, 1973. the Arabs were more successful against Israel than they had been previously and they obviously liked the taste of success, even if it was incomplete. Even if the United States was not prepared to supply the trapped Egyptian Third Army during the October war, as the former Israeli Defence Minister (Mr Moshe Dayan) said it was, American sympathies are not wholeheartedly for Israel.

As the signs of war multiply, so do the signs that Israel is prepared to make considerable concessions in handing back territory it has seized. Within Israel itself many would like to see the Zionist emphasis dropped and land handed back. Another war would mean that these more moderate elements in Israel would be destroyed by war fever. If the PL 0 drops its most extreme positions, the moderate Arabs and Israelis may yet. win the victory