BRITISH ELECTION Opinion polls show swing to Liberals

Press, Volume CXIV, Issue 33462, 18 February 1974, Page 13

BRITISH ELECTION Opinion polls show swing to Liberals

(N.Z.P.A.-Reuter—Copyright! LONDON, February 17. The British Prime Minister (Mr Heath) has summoned his Ministers to an emergency Cabinet meeting today, to plan election strategy, at Chequers, his official country residence.

High on the agenda is the growing possibility' that the minority Liberal Party may well hold the balance of power when the new Parliament assembles on March 6.

Three new polls published in leading Sunday newspapers today show a considerable swing to the Liberals at the end of the first week of the election campaign, and a narrowing of the gap between the Conservatives and the Opposition Labour Party. The Opinion Research Centre, the only organisation of its kind to forecast cqrrectly the 1970 General Election result, gives the Liberals 21 per cent support this week-end, or 5 per cent more than their figure 10 days ago. The O.R.C. poll, published by the “Sunday Times," gives the Conservatives 38 per cent and Labour, 35. A poll in the “Observer” puts Liberal support at !9| per cent; the Conservatives, 401 per cent; and Labour, 38 per cent.

A Gallup poll published by the "Sunday Telegraph” gives the Liberals 14 per cent, compared with 11 per cent only three days ago, and shows the gap between the Conservatives (421 per

cent) and Labour (414) narrowing to only 1 per cent. The Liberal leader, Mr Jeremy Thorpe, commented i today: “Our poll figures will climb higher still. The elecI torate is completely disIsatisfied with the other two i parties, and is voting Liberal I this time.”

The Liberals have five byelection victories in 15 months to their credit.

Saturation coverage of the vital election campaign by television and newspapers I has given the Liberals a much greater share of attention than they received in recent General Elections, and Mr Thorpe’s television image is thought to have won considerable support, especially from female voters.

Although it had only 11 of the 630 seats in the last Parliament, the party’s supreme optimists are recalling the nineteenth-century heyday of their political ancestors, the Whigs. While few Liberals seriously believe a return to those days is imminent, | many are talking of the party obtaining the respect- ! able 50 to 70 seats it en- , joyed in the House before •the Second World War.

The Liberals, who won only 7.5 per cent of the 28.3 million votes in the 1970 General Election, received more votes than either of the main parties in the last 13 by-elections, but they have a tremendous task ahead: their strength is evenly spread throughout the country, and they need 34 per cent of the vote to win any three-party contest. If, nationally, they obtained 15 per cent, they would be lucky to hold on to their present 11 seats. If they increased their vote threefold, to 25 per cent, they would probably only double their representation. To obtain the 50 seats some Liberals are talking about, they would need 30 per cent of the total vote.

The bitter personal battle between Mr Heath and the Leader of the Opposition (Mr Harold Wilson) continues unabated. Last night, the Prime Minister, accusing Mr Wilson of dodging the issue of the national coalminers’ strike, suggested that the Labour Party should find itself a new leader. "No party which runs away should’ be a serious candidate for Government until it has changed its leadership and reasserted its commitment to democracy,” Mr Heath said. Cost of living The British Government’s announcement of a record 20.1 per cent increase in food prices in the last year, coupled with a record 12 per cent increase in the cost of living, has given Labour badly-needed ammunition in the election campaign. Mr Heath, who told a news conference that the main problem had been rising commodity prices abroad, insisted that Britain’s inflationary problem made it even more necessary to hold the line firmly on his tight incomes policy. Mr Wilson, seizing on the new statistics, declared: “Mr Heath has broken many promises, but, more than anything else, he has cheated our people on prices. The cost of key foods, such as fish, beef, imported lamb, and eggs has rocketed by more than 100 per cent since the Conservative Government came to power in 1970.”