The Press THURSDAY, DECEMBER 13, 1973. Vetnam: another round?

Press, Volume CXIII, Issue 33407, 13 December 1973, Page 16

The Press THURSDAY, DECEMBER 13, 1973. Vetnam: another round?

The cease-fire in Vietnam, already broken frequently, is close to complete collapse. This will not surprise anyone who has followed developments since the Paris agreement brought a reduction in the level of combat. The agreement did nothing to resolve the basic causes of the war, and little to diminish the capability, or the inclination, of the two sides to continue the struggle by military means. The machinery for political negotiations between Saigon and the Viet Cong falsely encouraged optimism in the minds of those who did not comprehend the intractability of the Vietnam problem. The negotiations have, predictably, got nowhere. Roth sides have continued to prepare for the next phase of open combat. The Saigon Government says that a North Vietnamese offensive has already begun, and the temporary capture of the town of Kien Due by Communist forces last week made this assertion more credible. There have been suggestions that the Communists want Quang Due province and its capital. Gia Nghia, as a headquarters for their Provisional Revolutionary Government. This would seem doubtful. Quang Due is the backwoods of Vietnam, sparsely inhabited and of little economic importance. However, Quang Due is of great interest strategically, since it forms a salient jutting into Cambodia, across which the extended Ho Chi Minh Trail passes to reach the important Communist base zones just north of Saigon.

For years, the South Vietnamese have held not only the province’s populated areas but also a string of ranger camps along the border of Cambodia to monitor and restrict North Vietnamese infiltration. Recently the Communist jungle tracks have become a highway system capable of moving tanks, heavy artillery, and troop convoys over long distances in a few hours. Such a capability is new to the Communists in South Vietnam, and a major worry to Saigon. And one of the few areas in which South Vietnamese troops can put pressure on this supply line stretching from Hanoi to within a day s march of Saigon is in Quang Due. If they do so, they arc accused of breaching the terms of the cease-fire; but can they really be expected to watch idly as the North Vietnamese war machine trundles southwards?

What is happening in Quang Due is not so much the opening of a North Vietnamese offensive as the preliminary jostling for advantage. Intelligence reports indicate that Hanoi, also in breach of the cease-fire agreement, has assembled sufficient troops and heavy equipment in the South to launch another big drive. But the beginning of this drive is probably not imminent

Perhaps Hanoi is keeping its options open. Even without American bombing support, the South Vietnamese present a more formidable defence than ever, and the Communists have not had the success in political and military recruitment that they expected to reap after the cease-fire. Watergate, the international oil crisis, and President Thieu’s economic problems are all factors which might encourage Hanoi to strike; but against these must be weighed the very real chances of another military failure, the desire to rebuild the North (with American aid), and the reluctance of both Moscow and Peking to endanger the detente with Washington. For the present, a return to widespread, lowlevel fighting seems as likely as an all-out North .Vietnamese offensive.