The political mood in Britain

Press, Volume CXIII, Issue 33381, 13 November 1973, Page 16

The political mood in Britain

Voting in by-elections, in Britain as in New Zealand, does not necessarily indicate a swing one way or another: it is more often influenced by local issues rather than by broad principles of national policy. The Liberals, although they were successful in only one of the four British by-elections held on November 8, may nevertheless have the most cause for satisfaction. The outcome at Berwick-upon-Tweed is still in doubt; the Liberal candidate leads by only 54 votes. The loss of Berwick will be especially disappointing to the Conservatives, because this is one of the most prosperous farming constituencies in the country; the voting there may be read as indicating some dissatisfaction with the Government’s agricultural policies. If so, it may presage the loss of more rural constituencies by the Conservative Party. According to a pre-election analysis, Conservative holders of seats in Wiltshire, Cornwall, and Yorkshire should be concerned over a Liberal success in Berwick. In Hove, solidly Conservative in the past, it was not expected that a swing to the Liberals would be large enough to enable the party candidate, Mr Desmond Wilson, a former New Zealander, to win. It may be misleading to suggest, as the reporting of the by-election has done, that he “ reduced ” the Conservative majority by 14,000 votes; there was no Liberal candidate in 1970. Even so it will be of small comfort to Mr Heath that Mr Wilson was able to attract such a large number of former Tory supporters to his banner. For the Labour Party, the four results pointed ominously to a further decline in popularity. At Hove, the Labour candidate lost his deposit; and in the Glasgow constituency of Govan, hitherto a Labour stronghold, a woman candidate took the seat for the Scottish National Party. The Edinburgh North seat, as was expected, was held by the Conservatives, although the Conservative share of the vote was less than in 1970. In four general elections, from 1959 to 1970, the Conservatives had consistently polled more than half of the total vote in Edinburgh North. Perhaps the only firm conclusion to be drawn from this year’s by-elections in Britain is that Labour has consistently declined in popularity. Not only is Labour less likely than 12 months ago to win the next General Election (due to be held by mid-1975 at the latest) but its position as the main Opposition party must be in doubt The Liberals, whose by-election successes have lifted their representation In Parliament from six seats to 11, are still barely credible as an acceptable third-party alternative when Mr Heath decides to go to the country. Can they hold their by-election gains in a General Election —Ripon, for example, a former blue-ribbon Tory seat? In the meantime, Mr Heath should not be unduly disturbed. The Liberals have yet to prove their calibre in a country-wide campaign, while Labour’s reversals threaten to widen the rift between those who want the party to lean positively to the Left—as Mr Harold Wilson promised at Blackpool that it would do—and those who see a move towards the Centre as offering the only chance of electoral success. Mr Heath is widely thought to have a better chance of recovering votes diverted in the last year to the Liberals than Mr Wilson. A writer in the “ Economist ’’ even goes so far as to say that there is now little sign of the expectancy that distinguished Labour during the 19fi4 camnaign. He reflects, indeed, that it might not take much to break the party’s morale next year.