OF ARABS, OIL, AND ISRAEL PREDICTING AN AMERICAN RESPONSE TO FEEL SHORTAGE

Press, Volume CXIII, Issue 33343, 29 September 1973, Page 14

OF ARABS, OIL, AND ISRAEL PREDICTING AN AMERICAN RESPONSE TO FEEL SHORTAGE

(By

STEWART ALSOP.

in "Neu-sweek. )

(Reprinted by arrangement) WASHINGTON. —Consider the following concatenation of circumstance and try to guess what might happen as a result :

1. It is mid-summer, 1974. Mr and Mrs Average American have had a chilly winter, for lack of heating oil, and now they can’t take the kids to the beach for the week-end, for lack of gas for the family car. 2. The Arabs, led by Saudi Arabia’s King Faisal, have got smart. They are saying, again and again, that the Americans can have all the oil they want, but on one condition. The condition is that the United States persuade Israel to abide by the United States-supported United Nations resolution of 1967, which stated "the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war,” and called for “withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from territories occupied in the recent conflict.” 3. Meanwhile, far from withdrawing from the occupied territory, the Israelis are doing just the opposite. In accord with the Labour Party platform approved before the October, 1973, elections, they are promoting Israeli settlements and major investments in the occupied Arab lands. To the Arabs and to the rest of the world, this looks, in the words of a “Washington Post” editorial denouncing the plan, like “a long step toward permanent annexation of a major part of the territories (Israel) won from its Arab neighbours in 1967.” This three-part set of circumstances is about as predictable as anything can be in this uncertain world. The optimists hope and believe that rationing of oil and gas can be avoided in 1974. But there is no doubt that oil and gas will be in short supply, and the tempers of Mr arid Mrs Average American will be short, too.

Diplomatic weapon

The main reason oil and gas will be short is that the Arabs have got smart. The Arab oil-producing countries, above all Saudi Arabia, are using oil as a diplomatic weapon. The Middle Eastern experts used to say that "the Arabs can’t drink their oil,” and they also used to say that there was “no connection” between United States policy toward Israel and the energy crisis. These were always dubious propositions. Now they are an insult to the intelligence. Now the same experts are saying that Faisal and company can be appeased by offers of American industrial expertise, by assured markets and investments in the United States, and maybe by some guns and planes. These are also dubious propositions, for a simple reason. To a man like Faisal, access for his un-numbered descendants to the holy mosque in Jerusalem, unsupervised by the hated Israelis, is infinitely more important than any number of blue-prints for aluminium plants. So is Israeli-withdrawal from the 25,000 square miles of Arab land now held by the Israelis. So is his own prestige in the Arab world. Meanwhile, oil in the ground is worth at least as much to Saudi Arabia and the other oil-rich countries as an excess of inflated dollars. So the Arabs mean what they say. So do the Israelis. To be sure, Arie Eliav, former Secretary-General of the Labour Party, has denounced his party’s expansionary plan

as “creeping annexation.”! which will lead to a situation in which “we will have 1 million Arabs in limbo—l million people without rights.”; But Eliav speaks for a minority, and the “long step toward permanent annexation” will no doubt be taken: after Golda Meir’s inevitable victory in the October elec-; tions. Simplified nutshell To put the matter in a somewhat over simplified nutshell: the Arabs will not sell us enough oil so that Mr and Mrs Average American can take that weekend at the beach next summer, unless; the Israelis turn back thel occupied land to the Arabs,; and the Israelis intend to do, precisely the opposite. So how will Mr and Mrs Average: American react? With anti-Semitism, is one answer. No doubt the above, equation could exacerbate' the anti-Semitic disease, I where it already exists. But; anti-Semitism is a wholly negligible political factor in the United States, and, if only because any politician who tried to exploit antiSemitism would be committing political suicide, it seems likely to remain that way.

But it is true that a lot; of voters are likely to be very; short-tempered after a chilly I winter and a gas-short sum-, mer. They seem likely to take; out their annoyance on politictians in general, and on the J Nixon Administration in particular. A lot of voters may; also become rather disillusioned with the environmentalists, since most people; would prefer warm houses in winter plus some smog, to chilblains plus pure air. There may also be a sort of anti-Arab backlash, since the use of the oil weapon by the Arabs smells of blackmail, and a lot of Americans do not like to be pushed around. But if the Arabs stay smart,; avoid threats and rhetoric,; and concentrate heavily on; the 1967 United Nations' resolution, the political im-j pact could be something far short of widespread anti-[ Semitism, but which never-! theless ought to worry the! Israeli leaders. Most Americans have not:

’: really cared a fig what hapi pened in the Middle East, as long as this country was not ■ drawn into a war there. For 'natural reasons—the same ■ .reasons that made Amerii cans of English ancestry overnight interventionists at i ; the time of the Battle of ■ Britain—Jewish Americans have cared passionately about what happened in the Middle East. Political awakening A passionate minority always has far more political clout than an indifferent majority, and this has been all the more true because of ; the Jewish community's ;famous generosity with carit(paign contributions. As a !'result, most politicians have i been almost as pro-Israel as ~Golda Meir herself, and a ■ politician, a libera) Democrat especially, who suggests that the Arabs after all do have la case (as George McGovern once did) is under heavy pressure to recant. ;[ Now the majority may be come less indifferent . A lot , of voters may begin to care quite a big fig about what happens in the Middle East, because what happens there will affect the voters in two sensitive areas, the family furnace and the family car.

;An Arab-Israeli settlement, 'ion terms which the Arabs 'icould conceivably accept. ■ will then seem highly desirable, and there will be, for [the first time, widespread 11 political pressure for such a ■ (settlement. An Israeli policy ’(of “permanent annexation” [would of course render any • settlement inconceivable. > There is another factor in i this peculiar equation—the i fact that Henry Kissinger will be the first Jewish : Secretary of State in Amerit can history. If Kissinger t were an ordinary man, this . might put him in an intoler- > able position. Fortunately. . Henry Kissinger is not at all ,|an ordinary man, and the , | peculiar concatenation of i circumstances described ijabove may provide him with [the leverage he needs to the seemingly im•lpossible—a lasting settle- ■ linent between Israel and the : I Arabs. (Copyright Newsweek Inc.. ;| 1973.)