Fears in the Philippines

Press, Volume CXIII, Issue 38183, 24 March 1973, Page 14

Fears in the Philippines

There are the customary inconsistencies in Government reports from Manila on the nature and extent of insurgency in the Moslem-dominated southern region of the Philippines. President Marcos, who thought it necessary to assess the situation at first hand, must have been gravely concerned about the fighting and the revival of secessionist sentiment in Sulu and Mindanao. Nor would his South-East Asian allies, including the United States, Australia, and. apparently. New Zealand, have received formal notification of fighting in the south if President Marcos had not feared revolt on a scale justifying a request for assistance under the terms of the South-East Asian Treaty. Yet, on his return to Manila, President Marcos appeared to dismiss the fighting as of little significance. Insurgency, according to an official statement, had been virtually crushed, and the rebels were on the run.

It has been reported that Moslem guerrillas from the Malaysian State of Sabah, in northern Borneo, have entered the disaffected southern provinces to help in the creation of an independent Moslem state that would include Sulu, parts of Mindanao, and even Sabah itself. Kuala Lumpur has dismissed the idea of Sabah’s implication as •• preposterous ”. Sabah’s Chief Minister, Tun Mustapha. was born in the Philippines and is a devout Moslem. The Malaysian Government has long had trouble in Sabah with guerrillas described as Communist. The fighting in the Sulu region might be an extension of this trouble: and the idea that the ambitious Tun Mustapha sees himself as presiding over a state absorbing areas in the southern Philippines is not to be discounted. In any case, it is apparent that President Marcos, who has ruled by decree since his introduction of martial law last September, has troubles enough in the disaffection in the south and demands for land reforms and a fairer distribution of wealth in his home provinces. Clearly there will be ho eariv return to parliamentary government. He wanted an extension of his term as President. Now, under the Constitution promulgated in January, there is no Congress of the Republic to question his authority, or his use of it. It is unlikely that attempts to write off the Moslem revolt as unimportant will deceive any of the South-East Asian Governments. And it is certain that none of them will risk involvement even if Manila asks for assistance — a development that President Marcos might himself wish to avoid.

The Moslem minoritv in the south, estimated at something over four million, has never acquiesced in rule from Manila. The Army chiefs have admitted that fighting in the last three months has been severe: and the rebels are said to have modern arms, often better than those used by Government troops — a fact suggestive of effective outside aid The President has made several attempts to placate the Moslems and now permits them to trade with Sabah If the revolt spreads in the Mindanao region, as many observers expect, the Government might not have the military strength to suppress it. President Marcos will have to solve his problems unaided: the United States certainly will not be drawn into another war. But it is a depressing thought that civil strife in the Philippines might again be threatening the peace and stability of the Western Pacific.