Wind of change in politics

Press, Volume CXII, Issue 33101, 16 December 1972, Page 15

Wind of change in politics

(By]

JOSEPH KRAFT,

, of the “Chicago Daily News,” through N.Z.P.A.)

PARIS, Dec. 15. A world-wide swing to the Right was proclaimed when the Canadian Prime Minister (Mr Trudeau) suffered a setback in his country’s General Election, and President Nixon scored a landslide victory in the United States. But that superficial judgment is now being gainsaid almost daily in news from everywhere.

In West Germany, Willy Brandt led the Social Democrats to their greatest national victory last month. The Labour Party has ended decades of Conservative rule in Australia, and in New Zealand it has come to power after 12 years in Opposition. In Japan, Mr Tanaka’s Conservative Party has held its legislative majority by a sharply - reduced majority, substantial gains being made by the Communists and Socialists.

In Paris, polls show the Conservative Gaullists in trouble, and a distinct possibility that a Left-wing union, linking Communists and Socialists, may win the legislative elections due in March.

The latest results, of course, do not reflect a world-wide swing to the Left. What they do indicate is that politics in the advanced countries is going through a new and quirky phase, a wind of change.

While the genera! pattern of the new phase has not yet emerged, certain elements are clear. For one thing, President Nixon’s trips to China and Russia have put a definitive stamp of approval on the politics of detent. The Right wing can no longer make effective use of the line that the Left is soft on the mortal enemies in Peking and Moscow. Thus, Mr Willy Brandt’s policy of accommodation with Communist Eastern Europe gave him a landslide in the West German elections; and Labour’s win in Australia was doubtless helped by a pledge to recognise China.

A second element of the new politics follows from

the virtual disappearance of serious economic depression in the advanced countries. Unemployment, as a result, has ceased to be a dominant issue. President Nixon did well even in such areas of high unemployment as California and West Virginia, and Mr Trudeau made his best showing in the high unemployment area of Quebec. The achievement of full employment in Japan did not help Mr Tanaka, nor does it seem of much avail for the Gaullists under President Pompidou. Instead of unemployment, the prime domestic issue is a social dislocation con-, nected with rampant inflation. Throughout . the advanced industrial world, people) equipped, by virtue of real estate or stock holdings, to take advantage of inflation have enjoyed a rapid rise in income and status; and persons with fixed incomes, or low-status jobs, have suffered a relative decline. The resentment of those who have done much better has become a dominant political passion of those left behind, and the political!

| leaders able to tap that i resentment have benefited accordingly. That explains in part why President Nixon, an exploiter of resentment par exceljlence, did so well compared with the remainder of the ) Republican Party. I It also explains the setback to Mr Trudeau, a political arriviste himself, who generated resentment in Western Canada because he paid so much attention to Quebec. It also provides another treason for the relatively good showing of the Left-wing parties in Japan and France,) as they have concentrated on ■ the issue of more equal ( shares in the general pros-L perity. ! The guess of most political h observers is that the issue L of equal shares has now , become the main one in the) politics of the industrialised)) nations, but it is very much I' doubted, in spite of all the) 1 confident talk of tax reform)) and guaranteed annual in- ' comes, that any political I leader has a good recipe for|> achieving a better balance in! I the distribution of wealth. 1 Not surprisingly, accord- .

ingly, the shrewdest leaders prefer the juicy melon of foreign policy to the slim pickings of fairer incomes.

Thus. President Nixon and Chancellor Brandt will probably continue to emphasise the foreign policy issues tnat [brought them victory at the polls, rather than vexing domestic issues. It is a sure sign of the .times that President Pompidou, faced with falling Gaullist fortunes, has arranged, just before the French General Election, a visit to Mr Brezhnev.