Trudeau’s return likely

Press, Volume CXII, Issue 33058, 27 October 1972, Page 13

Trudeau’s return likely

(Byl

MELVIN SUFRIN.

special correspondent N.Z.P.A.)

TORONTO, October 25. Public opinion polls give the Prime Minister, Mr Pierre Elliott Trudeau, and the Liberal Party a good chance of being returned to office when Canadians vote in a General Election on October 30.

The only factor that casts any doubt on this prediction is the remarkably large number of undecided voters—2s per cent in the most recent samplings. If a large proportion of this group were to decide to oppose Mr Trudeau, the result could be a return to minority Government after four years and a half in which he has worked with a comfortable majority.

It is always possible that there will be some sort of dramatic swing in the final days of the campaign, but at the moment Mr Robert Stanfield and his Progressive

Conservative followers seem to have little hope of gaining enough seats to oust the Liberals. The Socialist New Democratic Party, led by Mr David Lewis, has no serious thought of winning enough seats to form a Government or even replace the Conservatives as official Opposition, but it is hoping for substantial gains. And Social Credit, headed by Mr Real Caouette and almost exclusively based in French Canada, appears unlikely to add to the 13 seats it held at dissolution. An interesting sidelight is that a surprising 6 per cent of persons questioned by pollsters say they intend to spoil their ballots or not vote at all.

All are in Quebec and are responding to a local campaign seeking to promote separatism for the Frenchspeaking province. The theory is that by refusing to vote or voiding ballots they will draw attention to the movement to turn Quebec into an independent state. One danger in taking the polls at face value is that national figures do not necessarily reflect regional trends. For example, the Liberals are about the same level nationaliy as they were in the

1968 election when they won 155 of the 264 House of Commons seats with 46 per cent of the vote. Recent poll samplings show them at 44 per cent or 45 per cent. However, in British Columbia, where they won 16 of the 23 seats last time, they have fallen from 42 per cent to 35 in the polls. The New Democrats, who took the other seven British Columbia seats with 33 per cent of the vote in 1968, have jumped to 37. And the Conservatives, who did not win a British Columbia seat with 19 per cent of the vote, are shown with 25 per cent now. On the national scene, the Conservatives won 72 seats with 32 per cent of the vote in 1968 and are down slightly to 31 per cent. But much of their loss of support is in Quebec, where they won only four of 74 seats. What little they lose in that province could be more than offset by gains in British Columbia and elsewhere. The New Democrats took 22 seats with 16 per cent of the vote in the last election and polls show them at 19 or 21 per cent. There is a point where the swing of a few percentage points can result in a major increase in seats. It is a question of whether they have reached that level. The answer could well determine whether Canada returns to the position of minority Government that prevailed for a decade before 1968. A notable feature of the campaign has been the apparent failure of Mr Stanfield to capture the imagination of the voting public. Earlier this year the polls showed Liberal fortunes at a low ebb. Unemployment was running high and the cost-of-living seemed to be getting out of hand again. In addition, Mr Trudeau had lost much of the charismatic appeal that had bred the Trudeaumania of 1968. With the Liberals seemingly ready to be taken, it appeared that Mr Stanfield and the Tories had only to strike hard at the weaknesses in their armour. But while Mr Stanfield has come across as a man of undoubted sincerity, he has not been able to confront the issues in such a way as to exploit fully the dissatisfation with the Government. It would be a real surprise if the final days of the campaign were to convert him into a viable alternative to Mr Trudeau. In contrast, the Socialist,

Mr Lewis. has been pounding away with good effect on his favourite topic —the tax concession given to major corporations by successive federal Governments. He has declared repeatedly that although these concessions were supposedly aimed at creating jobs, the main result is inflated profits. Mr Lewis insists that in an age of automation, tax breaks are not the way to boost employment.

The main thrust of Mr Trudeau’s campaign oratory is that, in spite of a rise in unemployment, the nation is economically strong and that (his Government has confronted the problems Canada faces.

Jobless figures normally drop at this time of the year but the most recent report shows a rise to 7.1 per cent of the labour force. And although Mr Trudeau has emphasised that Canada's labour force is the fastest growing in the non-Communist world, he has had to admit frankly that he is puzzled by the unemployment rise. Nor has he felt able to offer hope of a slowdown in the rise of food prices, up 7 per cent in the last year.

The fact remains, though, that Mr Trudeau is personally preferred by the largest proportion of committed voters. One poll shows that 39 per cent think he is the best man for Prime Minister, compared with 22 per cent for Mr Stanfield, 13 per cent for Mr Lewis and 3 per cent for Mr Caouette, others being either undecided or unwilling to answer.