The Persian Gulf

Press, Volume CXI, Issue 32783, 7 December 1971, Page 16

The Persian Gulf

Iran has consistently laid claim to the three small islands, Abu Musa, and Greater and Lesser Tunbs, strategically placed at the mouth of the Persian Guff. The Shah discussed in an interview in July the probable consequences of the British withdrawal, which is due to be completed by the end of this month. “ Let there be no doubt about the fact that “ we propose to take back what is ours ”, he said, adding that the islands were "grabbed” 80 years ago, when Iran had no central government. Now the “ grab ” has been made in reverse, and with calculated timing. Iran’s occupation of the islands is less damaging politically before the British have left the area than it would be after they have gone. The British “ presence ” during the occupation would attach to Britain at least some share of the blame; whereas, if the seizure were left until Britain had surrendered all responsibility for the affairs of the Trucial States, Iran might be embarrassed in its relations with its neighbours. The reasons for the seizure were probably strategic rather than economic. The Shah regards the Gulf region as a natural sphere of Iranian influence. He has referred often to his country’s build-up of military strength, on a scale sufficient to enable Iran to offer protection to the shaky Union of Arab Emirates. Two years ago he announced that once the question of Bahrain—also claimed by Tran—was settled, he would like to see a broader federation of the Sheikhdoms. He would also like to see a common defence policy, in which the Gulf would become a closed area, and the port of Bahrain would be used jointly with Saudi Arabia as a naval base. It is too early yet to expect any solution along these lines. The Bahrainis reject Iran’s claim to sovereignty. They regard themselves as more Arab than Persian, and insist that they should be allowed to determine their own future. The most likely outcome of the British withdrawal is that the Gulf will enter another period of political instability, so acute as to cause international concern. Yet there is a chance that if the seizure of the islands remains a peaceful operation, other problems in the Gulf may also resolve themselves peacefully, over the next few years, perhaps through new attempts to make federation effective. On the other hand the Western Powers, and probably also Russia, might find themselves involved if ideological, economic, and political pressures developed. They might, it has been suggested, be forced to choose between Iran and the Arabs. The situation was perhaps best summarised by a writer in a recent issue of the American quarterly, “ Foreign Affairs ” British disengagement in the region after 150 years, he considered, amounted virtually to a strategic and diplomatic revolution. If it were accompanied by economic, social, and political changes within the Gulf countries, resulting largely from soaring oil wealth and a burgeoning nationalism, the uncertainties and tensions released might multiply alarmingly.