Sombre outlook for lamb season

Press, Volume CXI, Issue 32720, 24 September 1971, Page 12

Sombre outlook for lamb season

”■ In recent years it has been the reasonably buoyant market for lamb that has helped to keep sheepfarmers’ heads above water when wool prices have been at a low level. At present, with the new export lamb killing season now only a little more than two weeks away in Canterbury, the outlook for lamb in the early stages of the new season at least is pretty sombre and there i$ little hope of any recovery in wool values, to compensate for it.

A year ago the opening schedule for lamb, which included a 347 c par lb pre. mium for early shipment, made a prime 301 b lamb, with a Ulb wool pull, worm about $6.70. In practice, the delay in the opening of the season due to industrial troubles, meant that most producers were denied this premium, but when the premium was completely re. moved about mid-November this lamb was still worth about $5.90. At this stage meat company representatives are talking about this same lamb bringing somewhere between $4 and $440 at the opening of the new season. Farmers have been given clear warning that they would be likely to lose up to a dollar in the new season because of increased costs and the United Kingdom levy, and with talks in progress this week about new refrigerated freight rates (the increase Is a staggering 28 per cent) Industry representatives were saying that it was likely that the extra costs would be running close to the figure already mentioned. This includes, of course, a prospective increase In killing charges to meet a likely further increase in the wages of workers. , There are, as well, other depressive factors on tho horizon as the new export season approaches. At. this time last year lamb stocks in the United Kingdom were relatively low at about the 16,000 ton mark at September 3 and the prospects seemed to be reasonably good for the boards being fairly well clear of old stocks by the time that new season’s lamb arrived. .? This year the outlook in this respect is not so good. At September 3 the stocks in the United Kingdom stood at about 46.700 tons, dock strike last year there was more lamb in the pipe, line a year ago than is the ; care now. For sllofthat the over-all availability of lamb meat in Britain between now and the end of November or the end of Decernber is likely to be much greater than last year. On tho basis of one estimate, stocks in the, United Kingdom at the end of No-

vember might stand at about 34.700 tons, compared with 21.700 tons at the same time last year. Still another estimate is, however, that by the end of December holdings would amount to as much as 45,000 to 51.000 tons compared with about 20,500 tons a year earlier. A feature of the kill of lambs in the concluding stages of the season now coming to an end was a relatively high proportion of light and lower quality lambs. Figures show that In the South Island tn the season now ending there wore IS per cent more fair average quality lambs than In tho previous season and 3 per cent more In the North, giving an over-all Increase h> these lambs of s per eent. ■ ■ These lambs now constitute a considerable proportion of stock holdings. A recent report from the Meat Board's London officer says: “it is with the f.a.T ji|htweight lambs that traders have experienced most difficulties in clearing, , . " Nevertheless there is some outlet for these, lambs currently in Greece and lambs actually shipped to Britain are being reshipped to Greece without incurring the British levy. Thus to' some extent holding at the end of the year of old season’s lambs could be influenced by aalea to Greece, Also tho fact that light f.a.q. lambs are now in oversupply in the United Kingdom could react to the advantage of the early arrivals of naw season’s prime lambs in that these could be more acceptable to buyers, but according to an industry spokesman, who saw this slight ray of hope, tois eould be overshadowed by the weight of stoeks being held. ’ Nor la there much hope that recoveries from byproducts will help ease the burden to any extent, if at ml. In fact the over-all influence, according to one Industry < representative, would bo down rather than up. For lamb pelts the outlook is reasonable; with wool‘for lower prices except for crossbred types: for meals for lower prices than at this time last year; and for casings also a reduction in price. Incidentally, because of the increased import levies on imports into the United States ■

of shammy leather and linings from Europe, it Is likely that aheap pelts will also be bringing a lower price in tho early stages of the new season, . Increased money in the pockets of British consumers as a result of recent tax reduetions and other measures to stimulate the economy are also not likely to greatly affect the demand for meat, for consumers tend to direct increased spending to items other than foodstuffs. One industry representative noted this week that as United Kingdom housewives follow their North American counterparts into supermarket shopping, their attention Is being increasingly directed to convenience foods and this is reacting against the traditional roast of lamb and carcase cuts. The natural reaction to such a comment Is surely that the field must be open for more cutting and packaging of the New Zealand product, but here the trouble is that the coats involved can quickly raise the price to the point that ft is barely competitive and the Meat Board’s London office recently reported that the Household Food Consumption Survey for the first quarter of 1971 revealed an increase in carcase meat consumption to 17.50zs a week, die highest quarterly average recorded for three years. This increase in carcase meat consumption, it was stated, had been at the expense of ether meet and meat products and toe socalled convenience foods. The housewife, it appeared, would not accept convenience and expensive packaging at any price, but would change-back to carcase meat if this offered better

value, particularly to the cheaper red meats sueh as lamb and pork. At tho beginning of the new year another British old penny will go on to the United Kingdom levy on imported lamb meat which came into operation at the beginning of July. The final penny of the present impost will go on six months later bringing the total levy to three old pennies or 2.67 c New Zealand. There has been no sign yet that the United Kingdom housewife is going to bear thia levy, which has thus far become no more than another charge on the New Zealand fanner. The outlook for ewe mutton is overshadowed by the prospect of stricter inspection of carcases for sheep measles or Taenia ovis. The increased condemnations of carcases on this score could lead to a cessation of purchase on a per head basis and the stockpiling of ewes that has gone on in the past Where a ewe three weeks off shears is condemned, an industry spokesman said that the returns from wool and pelt and, the boiling down of the careen might not cover the killing charge. While stocks of owe mutton are reported to be at low levels, there has been a dlsqutetening report that Japan may ere long bo looking to China for some of her mutton. In the past mutton has not been taken from thio source because of foot and mouth disease, but it has been reported that Japan was sending veterinarians to China to see if areas free of foot and mouth could be defined from which imports could be made. A leaner type of Chinese animal may also be favoured by the Japanese to its New Zealand counterpart. On the shoep-meato horizon. therefore, tha outlook Is otoudy, but tho market is notable for Its unptediotabUlty and it la not likely tbit tftli present downturn in prospects will be so persistent as has boon the caw with tho wool market.