Contest for succession to Sato

Press, Volume CXI, Issue 32715, 18 September 1971, Page 24

Contest for succession to Sato

(By

MICHAEL HORNSBY.

of "The Times." through N.Z.P.A.)

TOKYO, September 17. The contest for the succession to Mr Eisaku Sato, the Japanese Prime Minister, is in full swing in Tokyo—though none of the main contenders would care to admit it publicly.

Mr Sato, who at the age of 70, is enjoying his seventh year of power, is hot expected to complete his present term as Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (L.D J.), which expires at the lend of next year.

The reasons for this assumption are several. The shock of President Nixon’s acceptance of an invitation to visit Peking and of his hostile new economic polices led many Japanese to the conclusion that either America was no longer a reliable ally or that Mr Sato had wilfully ignored the importance of Chinese-Japanese relations, or both. This reaction was not helpful to a Prime Minister whose control of events already was being questioned. ‘Joint struggle’

Earlier this year, the L.D.P. fared poorly in local elections,and in elections to the

Jpper House. Notable were he resounding victory of Mr tyokichi Monobe, a Socialst, in the Tokyo guberlatorial contest and the suc:ess elsewhere of “joint struggle” candidates running is independents with the support of the Socialist and Communist parties. These setbacks were less damaging personally, however than the more recent challenge to Mr Sato’s authority in the Upper House. This occurred in July when L.D.P. dissidents joined forces with the opposition parties to elect as president of the House a candidate who did not enjoy the support of the so-called “mainstream factions” of the ruling party, <i.e., those associated with Vlr Sato).

Return of Okinawa This autumn’s session of the Diet (Parliament) maybe decisive for Mr Sato’s future. One of the main items on the agenda will be the ratification : of the treaty with America on the return of Okinawa, i This is likely to pass, but a ; complicated package of re- : lated laws, touching on such delicate matters as the future status of American business , interests, may not. This could provide an oci casion for Mr Sato to step down.

It is thought, in any case, that Mr Sato might wish to make way, before the year is out, for Mr Takeo Fukuda, the present Foreign Minister, who has long been regarded as the chosen heir apparent. Mr Fukuda, at the age of 66, is somewhat old (even by Japanese standards) to be thinking of embarking on a new career as Prime Minister. This could tell against him the longer Mr Sato holds out, especially as there are already some doubts about Mr Fukuda’s health. Mr Fukuda, whose heavylidded eyes give him a somewhat sardonic and quizzical air. is said by those who know him well to be a witty raconteur and diverting companion. Little of this comes through in his public pronouncements.

His popular reputation is that of a brilliant but desiccated bureaucrat most at home in the world of graphs and statistics.

Bom in Gumma prefecture in 1905, Mr Fukuda attended the best schools and read law at Tokyo Imperial University. In 1929 he entered the Ministry of Finance where he was to remain for nearly 20 years. The post of Vice-Minister, one of the most senior civil service appointments in Japan, would have been his had he not been accused of involvement in a bribery case a few years after the end of the war. It was not until some 1 10 yeart lattf that he

was finally cleared of the charges against him. During that time he had entered politics.

He rose swiftly and held the important post of party secretary-general before becoming Minister of Finance in 1967. Chief rival A very different figure is Mr Fukuda’s chief rival for the succession, Mr Kakuei Tanaka, the Minister of International Trade and Industry. An outspoken, self-made man, with more than a streak of flamboyance, he is one of the few genuinely colourful personalities in a country where cautious compentence is regarded as the most that can reasonably be expected of a politician. Mr Tanaka was bom in 1918 in a poor farming region of Niigata prefecture.* His father failed in business, and as the only son among seven children he tasted real poverty.

He came to Tokyo at the age of 15 to seek his fortune with no more than 10 yen in his pocket, working during the day to pay for bed and board and attending engineering courses at night. In business At one point he toyed with the idea of joining the Navy (and actually took and passed with flying colours the entrance examinations to the Naval Academy) but eventually decided to set himself up in business. By the age of 25 he had formed his own construction company, only allowing the war to interfere briefly with his business interests.

In 1947, at the age of 29, he was elected to the Diet and has remained a member ever since. His rise with the L.D.P. was rapid bar one notable stumble. This occured, when, as Vice-Minister of Justice, he was accused of accepting bribes in a coal-mining scandal and arrested. Undeterred, he filed his candidacy papers for a forthcoming election from prison, was re-elected, and later declared not guilty. Mr Tanaka earned the admiration of the universityeducated bureaucrats during a long stint as Finance Minister in the Ikeda Cabinet, and an even longer tenure of the secretary-generalship of the L.D.P., which came to an end with his new appointment this year, has given him a position as unique influence within the party. Election architect Mr Tanaka was regarded widely as the architect of the

IL.D.P.’s sweeping election victory in 1969. After the electoral reverses this year he resigned from his post as secretary-general to accept responsibility for them. This created a good impression but was actually a shrewdly calculated move, as Mr Tanaka knew that he was in any case about to be, moved to a new s°b in a coming Cabinet reshuffle. A strongly-placed dark horse, who has emerged in the last year or so, is Mr Masayoshi Ohira, a former Foreign Minister, aged 61. He ’ has a strong factional fol- ■ lowing, is repected in the . business world and has re- [ cently dissociated himself from any attempt by the Gov--1 emment to pursue a “two : Chinas” policy at the United ' Nations.

Another outsider with his I eye on the succession is Mr Takeo Miki, aged 64, also a former Foreign Minister. He has twice challenged Mr Sato for the party leadership. As a persistent critic of Japanese policy towards China since the early 19605, Mr Miki ought now to be in a stronger position than he is. Unfortunately, the business community, whose good will is an all-important factor in Japanese politics, regards him with some suspicion.