Japan National Railways going deeply into the red

Press, Volume CXI, Issue 32629, 10 June 1971, Page 8

Japan National Railways going deeply into the red

(By

KOJI NAKAMURA)

TOKYO.

It was called the world’s most exciting train when it rocketed 320 miles between Japan’s biggest cities—Tokyo and Osaka —in barely three hours.

That was in 1964 when millions dubbed it the “bullet train” and heartened officials predicted a grand and prosperous new era for the Stateowned Japan National Railways (J.N.R.).

Today, the bullet trains are still fast and beautiful but the men at J.N.R. are grimly conceding that rail transport hopes have proved false. J.N.R. is losing moneylots of it —and things are likely to get worse. Total losses last year were estimated at 132,000 million yen. In the decade of the 19605, deficits amounted to a staggering 8,614,300 million yen (about SNZ2I,OOO million): something had gone wrong somewhere along the line. The trouble certainly was not to be found on the superefficient Tokaido Shinkansen line connecting Tokyo and Osaka with 130 m.p.h. bullet trains. Only nine of J.N.R.’s 247 lines can boast of profitable operations and the Tokaido is one of them. Mounting losses But ironically, the bullet train may be playing an indirect role of rogue as J.N.R. shunts deeper into the red. While the number of passengers using the Tokaido Shinkasen increases rapidly each year, J.N.R.’s share of the over-all passenger market is declining: give a few people a bullet train and pretty soon everyone will want one.

Taking into account the fact that the Shinkansen’s location and performance assured its success, some transport officials point out that many formerly profitable lines carrying “conventional” trains are now wallowing in debt. They suggest, albeit with more suspicion than conviction, that the bullet trains may have rendered conventional rail travel old fashioned and inferior in the eyes of the public. Whatever the reason—and clearly it has taken more than bullet-envy to swing millions off the rails— J.N.R.’s profit earning lines have decreased by 19, to the present nine, in the few years since the Shinkansen first renewed every Japanese youngster’s dream of growing up to become an engine driver.

Officials fear the percentage of ‘‘black” lines will

dwindle even more. J.N.R. accountants have worked out their own system of business coefficients in relation to all 247 lines: in the case of the single most deficit-producing route, 3,183 yen would have to be spent in order to show proceeds of 100 yen. Every day in Japan, 28,147 trains move on a total line system of 20,833 kilometres. Of the 19,955 passenger trains, 18,257 are classified "ordinary,” 1268 express and 430 super-express.

196,000 a day The Shinkansen, of course, has become Japan’s most talked-about route both at home and abroad, and its record matches its reputation. Six months after opening in October 1964, an average 61,000 persons had used it daily. In fiscal 1965 the figure had climbed to 85,000 (for a 12 month total of 30.9 million) and by 1969 the daily average had leaped to 196,000 or 71.5 million passengers annually. A railway’s blood is people and freight. Highly industrialised and the second most densely populated nation in Asia (after Taiwan), Japan is not short on either. Yet more people and more cargo are slipping from J.N.R.’s grasp. In 1969 the state railways carried 6541 million passengers compared with 6868 million in 1968 and 7000 million in 1967. The 1969 figure meant J.N.R. could claim only 34 per cent of the load carried by all Japanese transport, facilities—a far cry from the 51 per cent enjoyed in 1960.

Ten years ago J.N.R.’s share of total cargo was 38 per cent. In 1969, the latest year for which reliable figures are available, its 197.1 million tons represented just 19 per cent of the market.

Increasingly, rail planners are having to contend with the challenge of the roads. The Government last year began a sweeping five-year programme aimed at expansion and improvement of highway networks throughout Japan. Recent figures indicate less than 20 per cent of the nation’s roads are paved, and only now is the situation beginning to improve appreciably. Government blueprints envisage five limited-access freeways across the nation, a super-road encircling Tokyo Bay and a massive suspension bridge linking Honshu and Shikiko. Honshu, the biggest

of Japan’s four main islands, already is connected to Kyushu in the south by a road-rail tunnel.

Biased they undoubtedly are, but senior J.N.R. executives are convinced all those new roads eventually will lead nowhere. Motorisation,

in fact, is fast approaching saturation point: an irked but irreproachable statistician has figured out that if every motor vehicle was turned loose on the roads, the distance between each would be just 25 yards. Even this unnerving intelligence is not improving the peace of mind of J.N.R.’s bosses, who cannot afford to await a super-highway Armageddon. Instead they are pressing ahead with plans to build another Shinkansen in prescribed Japanese style—bigger, better and faster than the first.

The new Sanyo Shinkansen will connect Osaka with the twin cities of Fukuoka— Hakata, 565 kilometres away in northern Kyushu. Today the trip takes 8.5 hours; bullet trains five years from now will do the job in less than 3.5 hours. And the combined Shinkansens will cut the Tokyo-Hakata journey from 17 hours to little more than six hours. With careful scheduling and efficient handling, say J.N.R. accountants, a further 565 kilometres of track thus will be added to the 2318 kilometres which currently represent the sole profitearners. (That’s right, nod heavy-eyed officials: J.N.R.’s huge deficits are offset by only 11 per cent of the total track length, a mere four per cent of all lines.) With more than 460,000 persons on the payroll, J.N.R. today is a sick mammoth indeed, but there are many hard-headed executives who remain confident “more and more Shinkansens” will provide the cure. Yet even as this huge and beleaguered railway extends ever longer, every faster tentacles across the country, the super-roads will be shaping up as swift suitors for the hearts and minds of Japan’s travelling public.

And other countries can take little but cold comfort in the dilemma of Japan’s transport monoliths. For in varying degrees, all national transport agencies share an important factor with J.N.R.: they captive customers.