The Press WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 1971. Indian elections

Press, Volume CXI, Issue 32539, 24 February 1971, Page 14

The Press WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 1971. Indian elections

India’s Prime Minister, Mrs Gandhi, badly needs an over-all majority in the new Parliament, to be elected a year ahead of its time on March 9, to enable her to tackle with authority the pressing social and economic problems confronting the country. At the moment her wing of the Congress Party holds 220 of the 523 seats in the Federal Lower House, 42 short of an outright majority. The break-away Right wing of Congress, in associaton with the Hindu Jana Sangh and the Samyukta (United) Socialist Party 115 seats between them in the last Parliament will jointly oppose Mrs Gandhi, and may be joined by the conservative Swatantra Party. What support the front can muster at the polls remains to be seen, since no common platform exists. If it did succeed in ousting the old Congress, another shaky coalition would emerge, based on compromise and lacking the capacity to govern firmly. The main strength of the front will be in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where the Hindu vote is of considerable importance. Mrs Gandhi may consider it a fortunate omen, however, that the man chosen to lead the Uttar Pradesh Assembly, Mr Tribhuvan Singh, was beaten in a mid-January by-election. Mr Singh, a member of the Federal Upper House, had formed a government to oppose the Gandhi faction, but was required by law to be elected by popular vote within six months of taking his seat Interpretations of Mr Singh’s rejection have varied. Some have argued that is was due to a personal “anti” vote. Whatever the reason, Mr Singh’s absence from the State Assembly must be a relief to Mrs Gandhi. Uttar Pradesh has a larger representation in the Federal Parliament than any other state, and it includes Mrs Gandhi’s own constituency. She may conclude from the by-election result that the Uttar Pradesh voters will be more inclined to support her leadership than to oppose it. Mr Singh’s defeat is one of the most important straws in the wind since Mrs Gandhi decided, in December, to go to the polls this year. Other developments since then notably . widespread violence which the Government has not been able to control have not been so favourable to the Congress Party. In West Bengal, political gang* warfare persists, militant Marxist groups attempting to suppress the Naxalites, Maoist extremists .who began by seizing land then organised to bring about a state of anarchy which they hoped would prevent the holding of an election. There has also been an angry and widespread reaction against the Government for clamping down on Sheik Abdullah’s Plebiscite Front, in Kashmir. The popular Kashmiri leader had announced that his party would demand during the campaign a plebiscite to determine Kashmir’s future, as required by a United Nations resolution. Mrs Gandhi’s answer was to ban once more Shiek Abdullah and his immediate associates from Kashmir, and imprison about 500 of his active supporters, under a law forbidding any secessionist advocacy. This action was widely condemned, and was described by the elder statesman, Mr Jayaprakash Narayan, as foolish and cowardly.

Mrs Gandhi’s readiness to take dictatorial measures when thwarted by democratic procedures is a cause of uneasiness in India and beyond. Nevertheless it is widely acknowledged that a restored Congress Party under her leadership, leaning moderately to the Left, would offer India the best hope of political stability and energetic development One of the imponderables is the attitude of the vast number of young people who will be voting, for the first time. Many of them are inclined to admire in Mrs Gandhi the very qualities which anatagonise their elders, including her flair for defiant independent action, as in Kashmir. It remains to be seen where the young vote will go. But the party managers are clearly worried by the thought that youth might not hesitate to express its impatience with the existing order on polling day.