THAILAND’S PREDICAMENT

Press, Volume CX, Issue 32349, 15 July 1970, Page 10

THAILAND’S PREDICAMENT

(By FRED EMERY of "The Times,” through N.Z.P.AJ

BANGKOK, July 13. Political attention in Bangkok has again been drawn back to the uncomfortable Cambodian situation with the arrival of Vice-President Ky of South Vietnam and an official announcement that General Lon Nol, the Cambodian Prime Minister, will visit Thailand on July 22. However, the priorities Of the Cambodian questions cannot obscure the fact that last week Thailand’s fragile parliamentary experiment was unexpectedly subjected to a genuine challenge to the Government Dramatic noises off revived memories of previous coups d’etat, and everyone held his breath. In the event there have been several surprises, none of them, so far, unpleasant. The Government of FieldMarshal Thanom Kittikachorn actually climbed down, survived a cliff-hanging vote With a majority of one, and Parliament itself lives to fight again. This is the core of last week's excitement in which, given the conjuncture of Cambodia—the sudden disclosure of a full military alert, official scare treatment given to threats at the borders, and the trumpeted arrest of a Communist party leader served as somewhat unnerving hallucinants. It perhaps needs emphasising that despite vivid depictions from afar there is not, nor has been, the slightest outward sign in Bangkok's

traffic-clogged streets of any untoward military movement. Traffic Officer Photographed One press photographer, especially dispatched, has had to content himself with the khaki traffic policeman. It remains that the upheaval In Indo-China is sharpening Thailand’s predicament as an ally of the United States and is limiting some of the country’s options. Its own Communist insurgency problems, overt and latent, were testing enough for the country’s resources. This year a shadow has fallen across the country’s economic boom.

Largely through a fall In the price of rice, Thailand’s prime export, and suddenly Cambodia erupts. It could not have come at a worse time for the Thai Government. It still needs a lot of explaining how a Parliament, written off as little more than a debating society when the predominantly military regime tolerated its resumption 18 months ago, could suddenly come but one vote away from defeating the Government. Howl of Resentment The ostensible answer is aged clumsily to arouse a howl of resentment by Introducing sweeping increases in customs duties and purchase taxes which caused an immediate round of opportunistic price increases. More out of simple resentment at an obviously unpopular measure than from reasoned appreciation of the Government’s real need to raise more revenue, there was a dramatic hardening of the attitude of the Opposition in the House.

In this, members of Parliament, especially nominal Government men, were seen ; to be wincing at constituents’ reactions a development which close observers say has grown surprisingly fast in the wake of elections. The question was whether some of the military men in Government, impatient with the miisance of opposition, Would seize the opportunity to have done with the experiment by removing Parliament and the Prime Minister, who has been trying to make the new system work. Rather than force a showdown, the Prime Minister backed down by agreeing to rescind tax increases on petrol and cement

He also provided for a neat let-out for those still afraid of their constituents by allowing a secret ballot. No Love of Parliament No-one knows now who voted what and in this Thai compromise, the mystery persists round the actions of General Prapass, the first Deputy Prime Minister and

acknowledged "strong man,” who is known to have no love for Parliament. But the narrowness of the vote is a sure sign that the issue is not yet decided. Opposition is expected to increase with the approach of the Budget in two weeks. Of the reasons the Government has given for attempting to raise more revenue, the need for increased military expenditure is paramount. American largesse is diminishing,' yet the new threats seen in Cambodia have expanded. Anything Thailand does is going to involve heavy costs, and the Government cannot be blamed for taking a long, hard look.