FROM THE “ECONOMIST" BRIT AIN’S POPULATION: WHERE HAVE ALL THE BABIES GONE?

Press, Volume CIX, Issue 32234, 28 February 1970, Page 10

FROM THE “ECONOMIST" BRIT AIN’S POPULATION: WHERE HAVE ALL THE BABIES GONE?

(Reprinted from the by arrangement)

Ever since the birth rate began its well-publicised decline from its 1964 peak, an imminent recovery has been confidently predicted as total population, the number of women of child-bearing age and the number of marnagtes all continue to increase year by year. But the number of births has still gone on falling, and the figures which have just been released by the General Register Office show a total number of births for England and Wales in 1969 which is below 800,000 for the first time since 1960. The number of births is now well below the average for, say, the first two decades of this century, when the population was only three-quarters its i present size. In. 1964 the number of live births for everv 1000 people in England and Wales was 18.5; in 1969 it had fallen to only 16.3.

j 'Wliy. has this decline persisted? One theory used to.' 'j»e that the upsurge would come when the postwar bulge babies began to produce a bulge of their own. But by now these babies are about 23. So does an increased use of contraception mean that people ire putting off having their fantllies? The answer appears to be no. Throughout the 1960 s the number of babies born to mothers aged 15 to 19 showed a persistent increase even after 1964: for example from 34,000 in 1960 to 49,000 in 1967. The numbet of babies born in the first and second years of marriage has shown a similar strong increase.

What about the new abor-

tion law? The total number of abortions performed under the act in 1969 was 54,000, which is a good deal less than the -fall in the number of live births between 1964 and 1969, so this cannot be the whole answer. And the act does not seem to have had a very dramatic effect on the number of illegitimate births, which seems surprising since nearly half of all abortions in the first full year of the act were performed on single women. In 1968 the proportion of illegitimate births actually increased, although the actual number fell very slightly and both total and proportion appear to have fallen slightly further in 1969. The fact that the act has not made more of an

impression on the illegitimacy rate supports estimates made in the “Lancet” recently that the number of pre-act therapeutic abortions (i.e., excluding back-street abortions which no-one has succeeded in estimating) taking place in hospitals and nursing homes had risen io nearly 30,000 by 1967. There is another clue in the Registrar General's figures for the numbers of babies born to mothers in various age groups. Between 1957 and 1964 the number of babies bom to mothers in the 20-24 age group continued to increase, in common with the numbers for all other age groups. But from 1964 to 1967 (the latest year for which figures are available) the number has fallen, as it has for all older age groups. Proportionately, the decline is largest for the oldest age groups; the number of babies born to women in their early to mid40s, for example, has fallen by over 20 per cent since their peak in 1962. School Figures Revised Is this decline of any significance? It is nothing like large enough to bring the growth in Britain's population to a halt. In 1969 the number of deaths, which has been increasing steadily, was still some 220,000 short of the number of births. But the population estimates for the end of the century have been steadily revised downwards during the past five years. One short-term effect is on the number of first year primary school children. The Department of Education has had to revise its figures downwards continually (in comparison, it has had to revise its figures steadily upwards for the demand for post-school education). Its estimate, prepared by the General Register Office and published only last October, for the number of births tn 1969 is about 50.000 too high In 1974. when these children enter school, it looks as if most of the cash and concern will be concentrated on easing the situation in the secondary schools, where the school leaving age will just have been raised. It is nice to think that, where local education authorities really have been looking ahead, there might possibly be a bit of slack in what might otherwise be a. rather neglected area of education.