Mediation In Nigeria

Press, Volume CIX, Issue 32166, 9 December 1969, Page 16

Mediation In Nigeria

The offer of the Swiss Government to intervene in the Nigerian war, perhaps in association with other neutral governments, will revive hopes for a negotiated peace. The Federal Government has never been enthusiastic about non-African intervention, maintaining that the proper negotiating body should be the Organisation of African Unity. But the Government,in Lagos might now have reasons to welcome a fresh peace initiative, regardless of its source. One is the cost of the war, which is steadily draining away its reserves of foreign currency. Last year the cost of military supplies was estimated conservatively at £35 million. This year’s figure is thought to be at least twice as much, not including arms bought on long-term credit

The Federal Government’s problem of financing the war has been intensified by the Biafran strategy of bombing the oil installations. A few weeks ago the Biafran leader, Colonel Ojukwu, claimed that all production from the on-shore wells had been stopped. The largest operating company, Shell-BP, had planned a huge expansion of output by the end of this year. Had it been able to carry out its plans, the resultant increase in federal revenues might have largely solved the Government’s problem of financing the war. The raids on the oil fields and installations began in June, and were still being made when the mid-western fields were closed in< October. If Colonel Ojukwu’s claim' is true, oil exports must almost have ceased.

The Biafrans lately have also had considerable military success. There was a stage, about 18 months ago, when their collapse seemed imminent for lack of arms and ammunition. The turning-point came

with the recapture of Owerri, after which French supplies, which had been running down, began to pour into Uli again. It must appear now that neither side can hope to end the war by crushing the other. If, however, the Biafrans have come closer to crippling the Federal Government financially by cutting down oil revenues, there might be justification for the recent judgment of a correspondent of the “Economist” that Federal morale at this stage is probably more fragile than Biafran. The Swiss statement suggests that the latest request for mediation came from Colonel Ojukwu. The truth probably is that both sides are close to exhaustion, morally as well as physically. The climate might now be right for bringing them together. t' S