NORTHERN IRELAND STATE’S VERY BASES ARE IN INCREASING JEOPARDY

Press, Volume CIX, Issue 32072, 21 August 1969, Page 10

NORTHERN IRELAND STATE’S VERY BASES ARE IN INCREASING JEOPARDY

(Reprinted from the "Economist" by arrangement)

LONDON, August 16.—Ulster is on the edge of civil war. The British troops who have entered Londonderry to help to keep order there are the most painful admission of this that the Ulster, and the British authorities could make. Their presence is thereby all the greater a success for those Roman Catholics in the Bogside whose fight was to get Britain involved and, if possible, to internationalise the conflict. That is to say get the Irish Republic directly involved: which was what the Republic’s Prime Minister, Mr Jack Lynch, did even before the troops had moved. Three days and nights of fire in Londonderry have reopened the Irisli question.

It may be that the emotional and physical exhaustion of the Derry roiters, or the British troops’ presence, will impose a brittle truce this week-end. A lot will depend on how many Catholic hotheads, both in Ulster and the Republic, are misled by Mr Lynch into believing that the Dublin Government, thfe United Nations, the Congolese army, or whoever can, will go to their aid if they shed real blood. The best that can be said for Mr Lynch’s troop movements is that they should enable him to close his border and distract his own hotheads. So far Ulster has had no real bloodshed. The mobs, both Protestant and Catholic, have restricted themselves to throwing stones and petrol bombs at each other and the police. But the Catholic mob which deliberately started the Derry riot, overreacting to the provocation of the Apprentice Boys’ march, has shown a frighteningly increased efficiency in the erection of barricades, the manufacture of petrol bombs, and the tactics of mob war.

Guns Hidden Away No doubt the larger Protestant mob, which has not really been heard from yet, will draw the lesson. There has already been some shooting in Londonderry, largely, it seems, by the police, but there are too many guns hidden away in Ulster, in both Protestant and Catholic hands, to give any real hope that they will never be used. It may be that the decent majority of Ulster, if it really does exist, will not be shocked out of the habit of mutual religious intolerance to deal effectively with its own hooligans until there has been real tragedy. Having rejected the warnings and the opportunity presented by Captain O’Neill, it did little enough to use the short breathing space of Major Chichester-Clark’s first weeks. But that majority must make up its mind, and quickly, whether it wishes to continue to be regarded as an integral part of the United Kingdom. If it does, then it must accept that in the end no British Government can avoid taking full and final responsibility when injustice and the breakdown of law and order in any one part bf the kingdom are too great to be tolerated.

Intolerable Prospect

To most Ulstermen the prospect of losing their quasiindependent status and being governed directly from Westminster is probably still intolerable. Equally, it would be a misleading exaggeration to say that the situation in Ulster is already intolerable to most other citizens of the United Kingdom, although they would feel very differently if they regarded Ulster as a part of Britain. They would not tolerate rioting in such British towns as, say, Dewsbury or Barrow, Swansea or Greenock. In the past week the newspapers and television have made them interested in, even increasingly appalled by, the conflict in Ulster, but they are not yet concerned. This would certainly be changed if the rioting in Ulster led to civil war, or if British troops were used for a prolonged period to prevent or contain such a war. The increasing demand for outright intervention in Ulster

(which would already be strident if Parliament were sitting) is reminding the British public, as Mr Lynch’s behaviour has also helped to do, that the province is a part of the United Kingdom. When the British public become finally convinced of this they will not only find the situation in Ulster intolerable, they will also blame the British Government for allowing it to develop. Embroilment Risks

However much, therefore, the British Government may wish to avoid becoming directly embroiled it cannot afford for constitutional, political or humanitarian reasons to run the risk of allowing the Ulster rioting to develop into a bloody civil or religious war. Of course, Mr Wilson or any other British Prime Minister would not wish to take over constitutionally before it is absolutely essential. Such intervention would, indeed, run great risks of its own. The mobs of Ulster may turn on the British troops as readily as they do on their own constabulary. There is the real danger that some fanatical Protestants would fight for a U.D.I. The danger is closer now that British troops are actually clearing the streets of Ulster; since they are there at the request of and under the apparent general control of the Ulster government the appearance of direct intervention from Whitehall has so far been avoided. But the use of troops cannot be anything but an emergency operation to prevent widespread bloodshed; they are no sort of answer to Ulster’s problems. Unless there is a sudden change of heart among Ulstermen themselves, the conflict will only be renewed with increased bitterness once the troops are back in their barracks. And if the Ulster government is unable to release them for that reason, direct rule from Westminster will be inevitable.

Must Be Spelt Out Major Chichester-Clark is no doubt as aware of this as Captain O’Neill was. It is time the majority of Ulster was made aware of it too. Perhaps it will not believe its present Prime Minister any more than it really believed Captain O’Neill. It is therefore up to Mr Wilson, and Mr Heath, to spell this out on behalf of the rest of the United Kingdom to the people of Ulster.

For what Ulster needs most urgently now is the enforcement of the same justice, law and order that is common to the rest of the United Kingdom, and that would be the first priority of direct British rule. It may even be that such rule will have an increasing attraction for the law-abiding majority of Ulster. What ought to have been plain was that the old ways were leading to the suicide of the State. What is plain now is that the very bases of the State can no longer avoid questioning.