Survey Finds Nixon Strong Favourite

Press, Volume CVIII, Issue 31828, 5 November 1968, Page 17

Survey Finds Nixon Strong Favourite

(N.Z. Press Association—Copyright)

NEW YORK, November 4. Mr Richard Nixon is a strong favourite to win the Presidency tomorrow despite a late rally by VicePresident Hubert Humphrey that has tightened the race considerably, a national political survey indicated today, the New York Times News Service reported. The check of political opinion in all 50 States by representatives of the “New York Times” showed Mr Nixon leading in 30 States with a total of 299 electoral votes. A majority of the 538 electoral votes, or 270, is required to win.

Mr Humphrey was listed as ahead in eight States and the District of Columbia with 77 electoral votes. Mr George Wallace, the American Independent Party candidate, was leading in five States with 45 votes. Seven States with 117 votes were regarded as too close to call. Since the last survey taken by the “New York Times” a month ago, the Nixon electoral vote has dropped by 81 and the Wallace total by 21 while Humphrey has gained 49. The total vote of States considered too close to call has increased by 53. The survey also indicated that the Republicans would

gain about five governorships, perhaps as many as eight, in the 21 States where such elections will be held tomorrow. There are now 26 Republican and 24 Democratic governors. Democratic Control In the Congressional elections, according to the state-by-state reports, the Republicans are expected to gain five or six Senate seats and about 10 in the House of Representatives. This would not deprive the Democrats of control of either House. While the new figures strongly indicate that Mr Nixon will win the election, they do not eliminate the possibility of a Humphrey victory if the Democrats can sweep the undecided States and most of those in which Nixon's advantage is regarded as relatively small.

If the Vice-President should carry all the States in which

he appears to lead, all the seven undecided States and the five largest of the eight states in which Mr Nixon’s lead is narrow, his electoral vote total would be 270. If Mr Humphrey fell just short of this figure, however, and Mr Wallace held his five States, no candidate would receive a majority in the Electoral College, and the decision would pass to the new House of Representatives. States Listed The States in which Mr Humphrey was reported leading were Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, West Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, and Hawaii, plus the District of Columbia.

Mr Wallace was listed as ahead in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi. A month ago he had been leading in North and South Carolina as well, but these States were now considered too close to call. The other undecided States were Connecticut, New York, Texas, Tennessee and Washington. All of these except Tennessee had been reported as favourable to Mr Nixon a month ago. The States in which Mr Nixon was considered leading but by a small enough margin to make him vulnerable to a late Democratic surge were Delaware, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Missouri, Arizona, New Mexico, Florida and Virginia. Predictably, the "New York Times” survey was at odds with the claims of both major party candidates. Mr Nixon’s campaign manager, Mt* John Mitchell, said the Republican nominee could win “well over” 400 electoral votes, basing his argument on a series of polls. The Democrats, in their effort to assemble a victory for Mr Humphrey, list many of the surveys’ undecided states as Democratic, and a number of those the survey allots to Mr Nixon as undecided.

Evidence of loss of strength by Mr Wallace came in reports from a number of States, including some on the border and in the South. Efforts by leaders of organised labour to reinforce their members’ traditional Democratic allegiance was responsible in some instances. Lost Votes

The survey also indicated that Wallace’s choice of General Curtis LeMay, the retired Air Force general, as his running mate, had cost him votes in a large number of States by giving the ticket a belligerent Image. By restricting Mr Wallace to his hardcore five-state base, the survey reduces somewhat the likelihood that neither Nixon nor Vice-President Humphrey would win an electoral majority, but a really close race between the two major party candidates could still produce such a deadlock.