The Press THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 1968. Smaller Increase In Sheep Numbers

Press, Volume CVIII, Issue 31782, 12 September 1968, Page 14

The Press THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 1968. Smaller Increase In Sheep Numbers

Signs that the rate of increase in sheep numbers in North Canterbury is slowing down do not necessarily portend failure to hit, by 1972, the target set by the Agricultural Development Conference for a 40 per cent increase in livestock numbers in a decade. The signs may, however, indicate that the pattern of increases in livestock production will not follow the lines envisaged by the conference. Mr R. A. Milne told the North Canterbury Agricultural Advisory Committee this week that the number of sheep on North Canterbury farms had probably risen by 4 per cent in the last year. This may, indeed, be better than the New Zealand average. The rise in New Zealand sheep numbers has been erratic in recent years, 3.85 per cent in the year to June, 1965; 6.7 per cent to June, 1966; and 4.39 per cent to June, 1967. As returns from fine-woolled sheep, favoured in North Canterbury, have been the least affected by the decline in the wool market, farmers in other parts of the country have probably had less incentive than North Canterbury farmers to maintain the rates of increase in their flocks. In June, 1967, the number of sheep in New Zealand was 60 million. Two months ago the president of Federated Farmers, Mr P. S. Plummer, said that the most recent figures showed New Zealand had about 61 million sheep, which suggests that the percentage increase in the last year was unusually low. ThL is well below the hopes of the development conference, which set a target of 71.3 million for 1972.

The goal set by the conference required an average rate of increase for livestock numbers — measured in “ ewe equivalents of 3.5 per cent a year. Mr Milne reported an estimated increase of 12 per cent in beef cattle numbers in North Canterbury. Throughout the whole country both dairy and beef cattle numbers have increased faster than the conference expected. For several years the cattle population has been rising steadily by more than 400,000 a year until it is now more than 8.2 million — only 400,000 short of the 1972 target. In calculating “ ewe equivalents ” the conference rated one dairy cow in milk as equivalent in production value to seven ewes, and other cattle as equivalent to four or five ewes. This year is the half-way point in the 10 years of development with which the conference was concerned; and livestock numbers are still slightly ahead of the targets set for annual increases. It is only the pattern of increased production which is out of line with the conference’s predictions. That is not important, except as a reminder that planning for an industry which is sensitive to market changes has its limits. What is important now is to ensure that the momentum of the last few years is not lost. The least happy aspect of the conference’s exercise in setting production targets is that increased production has not lately yielded the overseas earnings expected of it. Unless export prices improve New Zealand s future prosperity must rest largely on the hope not of production aims being fulfilled but of their being substantially exceeded.