The Press TUESDAY, AUGUST 20, 1968. Beef Or Lamb ?

Press, Volume CVIII, Issue 31762, 20 August 1968, Page 12

The Press TUESDAY, AUGUST 20, 1968. Beef Or Lamb ?

For several months farmers have been offered conflicting advice on the prospects for meat exports. Some authorities have spoken gloomily of the future for selling lamb; others have expressed confidence in the growth of lamb markets outside Britain. Most experts say, cautiously, that the world market for beef offers the best hope for New Zealand meat producers. The most authoritative and exhaustive assessment of future meat sales may be upset by such unpredictable events as droughts, outbreaks of disease, or changes in the import regulations of other countries. Mr C. Hilgendorf recently told former Nuffield farming scholars at Palmerston North that it is not the function of the Meat Producers’ Board, of which he is deputy chairman, to advise farmers on what they should produce. But since the first duty of the board is to promote the sale of meat abroad it would seem not unreasonable for the board to take a close interest in the kind of meat that farmers produce. The board's reluctance to commit itself is understandable; indeed, it is probably wise. For a substantial switch of production might not merely turn out disadvantageously for reasons that could not be foreseen; it might create marketing problems more intractable than the ones it is designed to relieve. The board takes the view that the farmers, with whom it shares all available information, must themselves makes certain fundamental decisions. The most important considerations are fairly simple: the British market for lamb will not increase, and may well decline: new markets must be found for any increase in New Zealand lamb production and the most promising is the North American market; promotion work by the board may increase the sale of lamb in Japan and in Continental Europe; the demand for beef is strong in many countries and is likely to increase; the countries most likely to increase meat production will almost certainly increase their output of beef, not sheep meat. The United States now offers New Zealand a good market for manufacturing beef. A world shortage of both types of meat is predicted within five or six years.

New Zealand’s hopes of selling both beef and

sheep meat profitably rest on our ability to produce meat relatively cheaply and on our retaining control, as far as possible, of the sale of our own meat. Success for the Meat Export Development Company in North America is in sight and this may prove to be a model for further participation by the board in promoting sales in new markets. All this is encouraging enough in the longer term; but it offers fanners no conclusive guide as to how they should plan their output. South Island farmers may prefer to wait for the results of increased beef production from dairy herds in the North Island; they cannot disregard the possibility that the United States will reduce its quota on beef imports. Those who are able will, no doubt, prepare to meet the demands for both sheep meat and beef; for most, the best bet will continue to be the meat they can produce most economically. Low production costs are the best bulwark against either short-term price changes or long-term shifts in demand.