“Wheat Or Barley This Spring?”

Press, Volume CVIII, Issue 31760, 17 August 1968, Page 10

“Wheat Or Barley This Spring?”

Delays in wheat sowings, uncertain prices for grain crops and the promising performance of spring wheat varieties in some areas of Canterbury, encourages a look at the relative returns from spring wheats and barley. It is suggested that a careful study of the figures (right) may help the cropping farmer to decide which is the better alternative in his situation.

As a guide, Aotea and Arawa are satisfactory as spring wheats if sown during this month and possibly early in September. Hilgendorf may be sown up to the end of September. For sowings after mid-September, the recognised spring wheat varieties may be grown. Gamenya seems to be the best of those available, but Raven and Triple Dirk have also performed well. All three are, however, prone to sprouting. This should be borne in mind when comparing the merits of spring wheats with barley in the accompanying table. Along the top of the table a range of prices is given, which may be paid for wheat and barley respectively in the ; coming season. The figures .in the far left column give the return per acre to the farmer from a crop, less the costs per acre directly incurred in producing the crop—these figures are “gross margins." The figure immediately to the right of each gross margin, and stretching across to form the bulk of the table, are crop yields, to the nearest bushel per acre. On the basis of the costs given later, the table shows that a gross margin of $6O may be obtained from a yield of 48 bushels of wheat at $1.65 per bushel. Working to the right, the same gross

margin will require a yield of 55 bushels if the price is $1.45, 58 bushels if the price is $1.40, 60 bushels if the price is $1.35, and so on. By moving along the same horizontal line we can obtain the bushel yield required, at different prices, to return the same gross margin. For example, if a paddock of wheat, bulk harvested, is likely to

yield 60 bushels at say $1.35, barley in the same ground will need to yield 95 bushels at 95c, or 102 bushels at 90c or 111 bushels at 85c or 120 bushels at 80c to give the same return ($6O). The weakness of the analysis is that we cannot forecast, with any accuracy, prices to be paid for grain in the coming season, unless perhaps the crop is grown under contract.

The figures given above are calculated using given direct costs, specifically those facing the farmer in the area about 20 miles north of Christchurch. Ground preparation is carried out by the farmer with fuel, oil and grease costed at 30c an hour. All other

operations are costed on a contract basis. Cultivation: 4 hours at 30c an hour=sl.2o. Seed: wheat, 2 bushels at $2.43 per bushel treated; barley, 2 bushels at $1.75 per bushel treated.

Superphosphate: one hundredweight=sl.37. Contract spraying: for weeds with MCPA=S2.IO per acre.

Contract heading: 13c per bushel.

Sacks: where bagging only =4c net per bushel. Contract cartage: (a) grain (1) bulk $2.15 per ton 20 miles; (2) bagged 20c per sack 20 miles, (b) super, one hundredweight bagged=llc. Levy on wheat: 69c per 50 bushels.

Spraying for aphis control has not been included, nor have direct costs and increments resulting from on-the-farm bulk storage been considered. All spring sowings should receive a hundredweight of super per acre. The figures In this analysis show that where wheat can be grown well, barley does not show up well, except perhaps where sowings are very late. Under lower fertility conditions this conclusion must be re-examined.

It is emphasised that nonmeasurable factors will, in every case, modify the purely numerical comparison made here. Such a comparison, correctly interpreted, remains, however, the most valid starting point for the farmer who is currently faced with the decision, “wheat or barley this spring?”

The writer of the accompanying article is Mr R. W. McEWAN, farm advisory officer of the Department of Agriculture, Ran'giora.

Bulk Wheat Price per bushel in cents Gross margin Bagged Wheat Price per bushel in cents Bagged Barley Price per bushel in cents 165 145 140 135 130 125 95 90 85 80 75 per acre 165145140135130125 bushels bushels bushels $100 75 87 90 95 99 104 78 91 95 99 104 109 $90 68 78 82 86 90 94 71 83 86 90 95 99 $80 62 71 74 77 81 85 64 74 77 81 85 89 $75 58 67 70 73 76 80 60 70 73 76 80 84 $70 55 63 66 69 72 75 57 66 69 72 76 79 109 117 $65 51 59 62 64 67 71 53 62 65 68 71 74 102 110 119 $60 48 55 58 60 63 66 50 58 60 63 66 69 95 102 111 121 $55 44 52 54 56 58 61 46 54 56 59 61 64 88 95 102 112 122 $50 41 48 50 52 54 56 43 50 52 54 57 59 81 87 94 103 113 $45 38 44 45 47 49 52 39 45 48 50 52 54 74 80 86 94 103 $40 34 40 41 43 45 47 36 41 43 45 47 49 67 72 78 85 93 $35 31 36 37 38 40 42 32 37 38 40 42 44 60 65 70 76 83 $30 27 32 33 34 36 38 29 33 34 36 38 39 53 57 62 67 74