Vietnam War Turn Of Tide ‘Next Year'

Press, Volume CV, Issue 31047, 30 April 1966, Page 15

Vietnam War Turn Of Tide ‘Next Year '

(N.Z. Press Association —Copyright) WASHINGTON, April 29. American military planners believe that the Viet Cong are still building up their forces in Vietnam, but they hope to see a turn in the tide of replacements by early 1967, says the Associated Press.

Barring some uncxpected military or political development, Washington officials expect that the war will reach a critical point about the end of the year. United States planning is based on the assumption that the critical point will come when manpower losses suffered by the enemy begin to exceed the enemy’s ability to replace manpower. These estimates are expected to figure in planning sessions early next month when the Saigon Ambassador, Henry Cabot Lodge, returns to Washington for consulta-

tions with President Johnson and his military aides. United States officials estimate that the Viet Cong lost considerably more than 20,000 men—killed, captured, wounded, or defected—during the first four months of this year. 5000 Defectors This includes about 15,000 killed in action and probably another 5000 counted as defectors. Against this, however, tt is believed that they were able to send in about 32,000 replacements. including troops infiltrated from the north and guerrillas recruited in trie south. The present infiltration rate is estimated at 5550 a month. American Government estimates put Viet Cong main force strength at 47,750 in June. 1965, 70,100 in December, 1965, and 90,000 in April, 1966. Added to this are local guerrilla and supporting forces estimated at from 100,000 to 120,000. United States officials said today that Hanoi has added two and possibly three regiments to its force in South Vietnam. More North Vietnamese The number of confirmed North Vietnamese regiments in the south has increased to 11 and perhaps 12. This is in addition to 12 confirmed, or possibly 13, Viet Cong regiments included in

the enemy’s hard-core force of 90,000 men. Counting guerrillas and political cadres, officials said enemy strength in South Vietnam could total around 250,000. United States military strength in South Vietnam now stands at about 250.000 men. South Vietnamese forces number about 700,000, including irregulars and police. The tentatively-scheduled build-up of United Forces will

put the total at 400,000 or more by the end of this year. One result of the build-up will be to increase the number of combat battalions as compared with supply and base-protection forces. Air Strikes The dominant view in Administration planning now is that heavy and sustained air strikes against the enemy supply lines will limit the Viet Cong’s replacement capacity and ability to maintain their strength. Officials said the North Vietnamese are using more vehicles and the United States Air Force is destroying more. A recent donation of 5000 bicycles from East Germany is being used by the North Vietnamese to trans-

port some 6001 b of supplies a bicycle. Intelligence reports indicated that there has been some lowering of Viet Cong morale. A shortage of food and medicine is reported and a number of the prisoners being captured are debilitated or suffering from disease. The number of defectors has increased markedly since January.

Plane Found.—A search party yesterday found the wreckage of a Peruvian Constellation airliner that crashed into a mountain in the Andes 200 miles south-east of Lima, killing all 49 persons aboard. —Lima (Peru), April 29.