AFRICA’S FAMINE ESTIMATION AND SUPPLY PROBLEMS ARE FORMIDABLE

Press, Volume CV, Issue 30965, 22 January 1966, Page 12

AFRICA’S FAMINE ESTIMATION AND SUPPLY PROBLEMS ARE FORMIDABLE

IBy the Commodities Staff of the "Financial Times”) (Reprinted from the “Financial Times’’ by arranpemen:)

On the face of it Mr Wilson’s recently announced plan to send Australian and Canadian grain to drought-stricken Africa is; not only laudable, it also looks relatively simple. After all, the United States has been sending half a million tons of wheat a month to India—it is nov. trebling this—and it is most unlikely that the total needs of the areas under consideration in Africa will be anything like as much.

So far, according to 10 Downing Street, the “bureaucratic machinery” for the operation has yet to be set up. Actually estimating how much and what kind of grain will be needed, and whether m tact supplies are readily available is some way off. Nevertheless, there are signs even now that the unknowns on both sides of the equation may prove difficult to come by.

The intention is to send grain to Rhodesia, Zambia, Bechuanaland, Basutoland and possibly Kenya. In fact, drought conditions have persisted in varying degrees across wide areas of east and southern Africa for the past four years. Reserves of grains for feeding cattle as well as for human consumption have been depleted. Conditions in Basutoland and Bechuanaland are serious indeed, while Kenya is already in the process of importing another 50,000 tons of U.S. maize under Public Law 480, bring-

ing the total to 100,000 tons since last September. It seems clear that,Kenya will need more, but the problem here, as with most of the other countries involved, is in trying to estimate quantities. Kenya has two crops of maize a year; one harvested in November and the other about April. Last November’s crop was well below average, and the second, yet to be taken in, is causing even greater concern. This much is known, but it is far too general when it comes to working out an actual shortfall giving rise to famine conditions. Lack Of Information In a “normal” year European farms in Kenya produce about 100,000 tons of maize, according to the Commonwealth Economic Committee. Another 80,000 tons are marketed by African smallholders. This, however, is only the top of the iceberg, for the majority of all the maize in Kenya is grown and consumed by smallholders. It never reaches the market and is therefore unrecorded. At a rough guess African subsistence production of maize could well be as much as 1 million tons a year. In a famine year it is anybody’s guess. The lack of accurate and up-to-date information not only makes it difficult to grapple with starvation conditions but also means that it is almost impossible to predict a famine in advance. Lack of adequate rainfall is always an indication, but it does not necessarily follow that people starve because of it. The acreage planted is also important and this can vary for any number of reasons. The recent drift from the land in Kenya, for instance, has not helped matters. Also, maize growers, both European and African alike, are reported to have reduced plantings as a result of the Government’s lower support prices. These were introduced, ironically enough, in order to reduce surpluses.

The problems of estimation are similar in both Rhodesia and Zambia, with the majority of domestic production being eaten on the land. Fortunately, from Rhodesia at least there are reports that the weather has broken, and that starvation may yet be avoided, even though cattle numbers have been badly hit.

Bechuanaland and Basutoland have not been so lucky, however, and are perhaps the worst affected of all the countries involved in Mr Wilson's plan. Most of their supplies of maize and sorghum (“kaffir corn’’) during the past few

years of drought have come from South Africa. Last June, for instance, Dr. Verwoerd was personally involved in the immediate shipment—including an airlift—of some 10,000 tons of maize and sorghum at the request of Chief Jonathan of Basutoland. This year, however, South Africa is itself having to look for between 700.000 and 800,000 tons of maize and wheat, so that help from the Republic cannot be expected. Relief supplies are, however, supposed to bp coming from Canada and Australia. Even this will pose problems. It is not that Canada—by far the larger wheat grower does not have the supplies. Latest figures show that on Nevember 1, the balance for export and carry-over amoun-

ted to 862 million bushels. Of this, 600 million bushels has already been sold and will be shipped by the end of July. This includes the mammoth deals with Russia and China, and means that Canada’s physical capacity to handle wheat both at the ports and by rail and road is already fully stretched. Indeed, according to the Canadian Wheat Board, one of the main criteria used to fix the amount of wheat going to Russia and China was precisely Canada’s transport and harbour capabilities. So if Canada is to send any of the 200 million bushels (just over 5} million tons) left over from this season’s sales programme it will have to be diverted from elsewhere. However, Canada has already agreed to send wheat to India and was only able to do this because some of its usual customers over - estimated their requirements and were willing to waive part of their contracts.

As for Australia the position is not so dear. Drought has meant a substantial reduction in this year's Wheat harvest which, at an expected 6J million tons, is more than a third lower than last year’s crop. Owing to lack of rain during October and November large quantities are thought to have been used on farms as cattle feed, so 5 that the final exportable surplus may be down sharply. These are, however, early days yet for Australia, which in all probability will have something available to send across the Indian ocean. Grain Stocks

Failing this there is always the United States. Although there has as yet been no suggestion that the United States should participate in this latest purely Commonwealth move its grain stocks are still enormous. Apart from large supplies in private hands following this year’s record grain crops, the Government Commodity Credit Corporation has some 13} million tons of maize and 14} million tons of wheat In -.lock. While the United States is heavily involved in becoming the granary of India it is mainly wheat that is being shipped there. Maize, however, is much more important in Africa, where it forms the staple diet in wide areas. And the United States has plenty to spare. It is just possible, therefore, that more will be heard of the United States being included in Mr Wilson's Commonwealth relief plan for Africa.