Inconsistent Polling In Canadian Elections

Press, Volume CII, Issue 30259, 11 October 1963, Page 22

Inconsistent Polling In Canadian Elections

IN.Z.P.A. Special Correspondent, MELVIN SUFRIN] TORONTO. Canadians are proving once again they are politically fickle. . This has been evident for some time but recent events make it more apparent than ever that the way they vote in a federal election is no guide to how they will react to the courtship of the same parties in the provinces.

Last April when Mr Lester Pearson’s Liberals squeezed into power as a minority federal government they won 52 of Ontario’s 85 seats. Ousted Conservatives got 27 and Socialist New Democrats, six.

Two weeks ago Ontario voters • spurned provincial Liberals and reaffirmed their affection of the Conservative administration that has governed Canada’s wealthiest and most populous province for 20 years. Premier John Robarts was returned with 78 seats for an increased majority, while the Liberals won only 23 and the Socialists got seven. Last week British Colombia followed the same pattern when voters re-elected Premier William Bennett’s Social Credit government with an increased majority. He got 34 seats, to 13 for the Sociallists, five for the Liberals and none for the Conservatives. This contrasts with federal voting which gave the Socialists nine British Columbia seats compared to seven for the Liberals four flor the Conservatives and two for Social Credit. Perhaps even more inconsistent is grain-growing Saskatchewan where the Conservatives hold every federal seat but have been shut out regularly in provincial voting which has kept Socialists in power tor 19 years. In oil-rich Alberta Social Credit this year was returned with 60 of 63 seats while Conservatives where again shut out. At federal level the Conservatives have 14 of 17 seats and Social Credit only two. The Liberals have the largest share of seats both provincially and federally in Newfoundland, New Brunswick and Quebec, and the Conservatives are in the same position in Nova Scotia and Manitoba. Prince Edward Island splits

its four federal seats while keeping Conservatives in power at the provincial capital.

At various times all but Newfoundland have split their loyalties and there is no assurance they will not do so again whenever it pleases them.

Theres no simple explanation for all this. Most often, the personality of the premier is the key. Sometimes, as in British Colombia and Saskatchewan, there is a lingering disenchantment with the old parties dating from depression days.

Mr Smallwood, who has been premier of Newfoundland since it joined Canada in 1949, is helped with a combination of personal magnetism and gratitude. Newfoundlanders remember that he fought hard for confederation and that It brought benefits such as family allowances and employment, to what had been a poverty-stricken region.

Another quirk is apparent in several regions, and it manifests itself in a perverse reaction to cries of "scandal.” In Ontario there has been corruption among Conservative Party supporters in recent years.

This has led to the resignation ot several cabinet ministers. It would take psychology to explain why. but Ontario has usually reacted to opposition charges by sending the government back with an increased number of seats. The Liberal leader, John Wintermeyer. who lost his own seat in the latest election discovered that voters were either unimpresed with his charges or resented his efforts to bring corruption to light.

In British Columbia where Premier Bennett’s government has conservative colouring and little relationship to Social Credit policies, there have been relatively similar reactions.

When the province voted in 1960 Bennett’s minister of lands and forests was in gaol for bribery. Social Credit was return-

ed with a slightly reduced majority. Before last week’s voting Bennett was under criticism because the courts had ruled he did not make a fair payment to owners when he turned the British Colilmbda Electric Company into a public concern. He was under attack for his government’s anti-labour laws including one that denied collective bargaining rights to civil servants. He was being accused of “packing” with government supporters the committee set up to investigate charges of graft in the Highways Department. His promises of new roads and the development of the province’s resources meant more to voters, however, and Mr Bennett is more secure in office than before.