Waitaki Seat Major Swing In Voting Unlikely

Press, Volume CI, Issue 29767, 9 March 1962, Page 12

Waitaki Seat Major Swing In Voting Unlikely

The Waitaki by-election campaign ends today without any evidence to indicate a sweeping change in voting tomorrow. Party organisers and workers find that in spite of good meeting attendances, largely of "the converted," the electors have revealed nothing to suggest any special interest in this election. Nor is there any sign to foretell an outcome other than the usual by-election result of a diminished majority in a Government seat. Only this absence of positive signs unnerves partisan forecasters.

The candidates are Sir Basil Arthur (Labour), whose predecessor at the 1960 General Election, Mr J. L McKay, obtained 6520 votes; Mr A. W. Barwood (Social Credit Political League), who at toe General Election won 1358 votes; and Mr A. D. Dick (National). Tn 1960, the late Mr T. L. Hayman won 8482 votes, a majority of 1972, for toe Government. One National Party estimate assumes a 20 per cent, drop in over-ell voting at the by-election and has concluded that the Government will retain toe seat, after a slight swing to Labour, by 1200 to 1400 votes. Labour supporters, while “hoping for miracles." have put the National majority as low as 500 to 700. There have been strong claims in some rural areas that Social Credit will make

gains there at the cost of National. Labour rests high hopes on a rise in support from Oamaru electors Keenest interest attaches to the towns where toe voting tor the two main paries is fairly even or where, as in the case of Otematata, toe Benmore hydro works village. Labour expects to improve its poaitton considerably. It was here that the Minister of Labour (Mr Shand• was at pains to point out toe longterm security for South Wand power production workers that toe Government policy tor the Cook Strait cable entailed.

The total number of voter--at Otematata has increased by almost 300 since the last election when 948 went to tiie poll. On that occasion it was alleged that not all Labour supporters voted With a current populrtaion of 600 married workers and about 300 single workers, and with more intensive party organisation Labour hopes to improve its position there on its 160 majority of 515. At Oamaru, Waimate and Fairiie toe polls were almost oven at the General Ejection. National bad a majority of 308 in Oamaru polling places. Voting at Fairlie. Rome of the Social Credit candidate, was: Social Credit, 126; National, 232; Labour, 233. Waimate results were: Social Credit, 234; National, 1033; Labour, 1038.

The campaign has, by general agreement in the electorate, lacked any significant issue. Though Labour and National speakers have consumed much time spesking on the Nelson cotton mill agreement and agreements with aluminium companies, these are not questions which have been much discussed after public meetings. The campaign has. however, been notable for the number of people attending public meetings. This has been attributed largely to the fact that two of the candidates are new to Waitaki politics.

This interest has also been taken to suggest that the poll tomorrow will be heavy for a by-election. Party observers in Waitaki are uncertain how much the absence of a liquor licensing option In the Oamaru district will affect the electorate’s record for heavy polling. Both Labour and National party organisations seem well pleased with the personal impressions that their new candidates have made during the campaign. Both have been strong speakers and, though hardly put to the tert at a difficult election meeting, have made a good showing. With experience in the General Election at Hamilton and fresh from a visit to Britain, sponsored by the Imperial Relations Trust, Sir Basil Arthur has been the most assured speaker. Mr Dick has shown that he can quickly grasp the business and facts of political campaigning but has retained a good amount of Individuality in his speeches and emphasised Waitaki matters in his platform.

Both have been overtoadowed to some extent by party leaders who have spoken at length on industrial agreements and on International Monetary Fund matters. At the 1960 election there were 1290 postal votes. It is likely that by tomorrow evening a higher number than that will have been received by the returning officer at Oamaru. These arc likely to come from Oamaru and from Otematata where a long week-end for hydro workers will mean an exodus from the village tomorrow.