The Common Market BRITAIN LIKELY TO SEEK MEMBERSHIP

Press, Volume C, Issue 29508, 9 May 1961, Page 14

The Common Market BRITAIN LIKELY TO SEEK MEMBERSHIP

I Bp

"LYNCEUS"

or the "fcronomUt")

(From the "EccnomuC Intelligence Unit)

London, May 25.—Rumours. denials, and counterrumours usually precede great political decisions. The recent remark by the President of the Board of Trade (Mr Maudling) that rumours of a British decision to join the Common Market were “inaccurate" should not be taken as the final word but as part of the clamour which precedes a great event. For though there can always be last-minute hitches, all the auguries today suggest that the British Government is on the point of seeking full membership of the European Common Market. Neither Mr Maudling's denial, nor the masterly obscurity of the Prime Minister (Mr Macmillan) when he broke his customary reticence on the subject in the House of Commons on April 25. has dispelled the feeling that a decision to join is in the making or has already been made. Even before the Prime Minister went to the United States, rumours were about that he planned, on his return, to offer to join. They have multiplied since, as details of the exchanges between the Prime Minister and President Kennedy have leaked out When Mr Macmillan asked the Presiden' what his view would be if Britain sought to join the European Community he was told bluntly that America would welcome this, and was prepared to make economic sacrifices for European unity But. the President said, there must be no half-measures that might undermine the Common Market. Britain must accept the substance of the Treaty of Rome. Obstacle Removed The advice removed a major obstacle to British entry—the fear that America might obstruct it—and armed Mr Macmillan with a weapon to deal with the Tory critics who argue that Britain must stay out of Europe to protect its ties with the United States. And it the Prime Minister had any doubts still in his own mind, the uncompromising American stand must have done much to remove them.

But. though the Government may have made up its mind to take the plunge, it stil l seems uncertain how to do it. An open declaration of the wish to join the Six—wth all the potit’cal as well as economic implications that this involves—would be a major shift of tactics as well as of strategy. In the last six months, while support for full British membership has been growing within both the Cabinet and the civil service, it has been the Government’s tactic to explore the technical and economic questions—such as those concerning agriculture and the Commonwealth—and leave a final political decision until the answer to these is known The French, however, have made it clear that they have no intention of negotiating on the economic matters until the British have made up their minds on the politics, and taken the decision to join. “After you,” the two sides have kept saying politely to each other; and nothing has resulted. British Initiative

Since Britain is on the outside of the community and is the suitor, it will have to break the deadlock itself by letting the Europeans know that is has decided to join. Only then will the considerable forces on the Continent which support British membership exert themselves effectively. Only then will Mr Kennedy, Mr Monnet and his friends. Dr. Adenauer, and the men who are building the community in Brussels come dewn firmly on file British side. But the plunge will also involve a risk. For then the question of how far France and the Six are really prepared to modify the Rome Treaty to deal with Britain’s problems will be out to the test.

The British themselves, it is true, have moved a long wey on the economic issues In March, Mr Heath told the Council of the Western European Union that the Government was prepared to accept a sharing of the preferences Britain gets in the Commonwealth, and a common tariff against imports from countries outside the Commonwealth and Western Europe A recent memorandum on Africa, from the British Gov-

ernment to the Six. reflects a growing awareness both of common interests and of the need for common policies there—an attitude which could lead to a solution of the problems of the Commonwealth African territories. A growing body of opinion (though not as yet the British Farmers’ Union' has even come round to realising that the mere substitution of one kind of protection (the Common Market’s import levies) for another (British subsidies) should not of itself damage either the British farmer or the Commonwealth. provided there is no great change in the amount of protection this involves. In the House of Commons the Prime Minister mentioned the “obligation to enter a single agricultural system for Europe”—a bow to a com. mon agricultural policy—and went on to speak of the "advantages of going in early and perhaps guiding it the way we would wish.” On the vexed issue of agriculture, the Government could scarcely be expected to go further in advance of detailed n gotiations.

All the same. certain special Commonwealth interests will still have to be defended. Some way will have to be found, through tariff quotas or generally liberal policies, of providing outlets of agricultural ex. porters like New Zealand. A parallel arrangement to help exports of manufactures from Asia is desirable, too Some raw material imports • will have to be safeguarded, perhaps through tariff-f'-ee quotas. The areas of difference are sufficiently small to make an agreement look possible. And all the indications are that the Six will be a great deal more willing to make concessions once Britain makes up its mind to join. Nevertheless the British Government could still find itself embarrassed if it com. mits itself and things go wrong. If that happens, domestic critics, to right and left, will show little mercy. The opposition to a move into Europe has been very much reduced in the last year. The larger industrial firms, which as long ago as the Free Trade Area negotiations began to appreciate the advantages of a single mass European market, have become more convinced than ever that they cannot afford to stay out, now that they have seen the Common Market at work. A more fundamental movement of opinion, concerned with politics, has also gathered way. Most of the press and an influential section of opinion generally have concluded that a Britain which can no longer command a world-wide empire must find a new outlet for its political energies and influence in Europe. But to the right of the Conservative Party and the laft of the Labour Party there are groups who are prepared to attack vigorously if any major Commonwealth or British Interest# are publicly sacrificed. Some Conservative back-benchers are already suggesting that the Government ought to dissolve Parliament and hold an election on a great historic issue of this kind. An issue which cuts across party loyalties, as this one does, is not susceptible to such treatment. But it could still be the supreme political test of Mr Macmillan’s career.