“INFORMED GUESS” AT SEASON’S LAMB PRICE

Press, Volume XCIX, Issue 29339, 19 October 1960, Page 16

“INFORMED GUESS” AT SEASON’S LAMB PRICE

Making an “informed guess” at the level of lamb prices to the producer in the coming export killing season, Professor B. P. Philpott, professor of agricultural economics at Canterbury Agricultural College, told farmers attending a field day at the college’s Ashley Dene farm yesterday that he thought the average schedule price for the whole season was likely to be about 19d to 20d. Professor Philpott was actually absent from the college for the field day but his taperecorded statement on the outlook for lamb and wool prices was played. “There may, perhaps, be a premium of 2d per lb for Christmas lamb,” said Professor Philpott, “and also to attract - back into the fold those astute farmers who sold on owner’s account last season and made a good profit. Buf such a bonus would be fairly temporary, I should think, and for the great bulk of our lamb kill in the early months of next year I would budget on 19d per lb, which after all is Id to 2d higher than the schedule in January and February of this year.”

Professor Philpott said that about this time last year the lamb schedule opened at the startlingly low price of 13d. It rose slowly in December. January, and February and reached 19Jd in May, at which level the season concluded.

This gradual rise in the schedule reflected a similar rise in the Smithfield price of lamb, which he had suggested would come about at the college field day in November last year. The Smithfield price was now about 25|d or 8d per lb higher than this time last year. This high price had led many people to conclude that there would be a considerable rise in the schedule this year. He had even heard 23d for the whole season mentioned. But before such a conclusion was reached it was necessary to take account of the reasons for the rise in the Smithfield price. Shortage of Mutton In the first place there was the shortage of British hogget mutton, reflecting the unduly large killings of last year which caused the drastic price decline. Next there had been a general shortage of supplies of mutton from Australia, the Argentine and indeed New Zealand, due to lower exports from these countries and also some diversion of exports to new markets.

Lastly there, was some evidence, as yet fdirly tenuous, that there had been an increase in the demand for lamb in the United Kingdom—that U.K.—consumers were prepared to pay a higher price than previously, or to consume a greater quantity at the same price than was previously the case.

“We are not too sure yet whether this has happened, but if it has then we can ascribe it to the slump in lamb prices last year,” continued the professor. “British people who have never

tried lamb before in their life may have bought it because it was so cheap and found that they liked it—which probbaly show's that there is no better form of advertisement or publicity for a product than cheapness. “However, I do not imagine that this increase in demand is going to continue on into 1960-61 and all tl)e other factors I have mentioned—namely shortage of British supplies and shortage of Australian and Argentine supplies—will be reversed. “There will be about Im. more British hoggets for slaughter in 1960-61 and we will be sending another million lambs from New Zealand, so that I would expect to see some slight lowering of Smithfield prices over the season due to greater supplies. Remember also there has beer a rise in shipping freights since last year, which as usual the farmer will have to pay.”