INCREASING FARM PRODUCTION PRESENTS A CHALLENGE

Press, Volume XCVII, Issue 28701, 26 September 1958, Page 4 (Supplement)

INCREASING FARM PRODUCTION PRESENTS A CHALLENGE

By

W. R. LOBB,

Assistant Fields Superintendent, Department of Agriculture.

There is little doubt that everyone is now beginning to feel the effect of a fall in the prices of primary produce.

It is generally conceded that for the individual farmer increased production, diversification of produce and producing at lower unit cost are reasonable approaches to offset the lower returns.

It is not so easy to forsee what effect this will have in the long run on national economy unless it is presupposed that new markets and equivalent returns are available for each and all of the increased items produced.

However, if increased production is to be considered, it would be of some interest to examine the possibilities that exist. This is not too simple because one of the most potent factors likely to influence a steady trend of increased production is the profitability of the farming enterprise which is a reflection .of prices and costs.

Falling returns generally mean an upswing i n production if they follow a period of high returns. This is generally possible because during prosperous times it is not necessary to push for the last unit of production to balance the budget. . Where new capital improvements jire being made and where new land is being developed, this may be undertaken at considerable cost and to the limit of capacity. A fall in prices can bring the process to a standstill oi can slow it up to varying degrees depending upon the stage it has reached.

Over the last few years there has been considerable development in Canterbury, and the immediate effect of a price fall can b§ met by a considerable increase in production, and this is likely to be reflected in both increased sheep and crop

In considering the production of Canterbury, however, it is important to consider what the potential would be if it were measured in terms of the capacity of the land to produce, and the ability of the farmer to extract that potential from it.

Industrial Ability The ability of the individual farmer is an important feature in the problem of increasing production, and this can be seen by the advances made by each successive generation. Under such

conditions production increases could be enormous. Increases could be foreseen in the heavy and light plainsland, on the developed and undeveloped downs and foothills, and on the extensive high-country areas, where improvements over the last few years siTggest further but not spectacular developments

There are soils within these areas which have potentials to produce at very high levels and that, as with so many other areas, it is factors of management, utilisation and costs which are imposing the limits. Productive increases are possible in any of the main three groups. i '

On the farms with high capital development (the high producing farms) there is the potential which can be had from maximum utilisation and from diversification. On the farms on developed land which are below the best farms in production, some very substantial increases are possible, and it is from this class of farm one expects first significant initial increases. The increases which can be obtained by development, subdivision and intensification of the areas where pasture improvement, topdressing practice and improved methods are not yet applied. In the same category come those increases dependent upon new irrigation development. South Island farming in general and Canterbury farming in particular, offers increased scope for production increases by exploiting the full potential for cereal and cash cropping. If we consider this it is apparent that the only crop of immediate consequence is wheat. Of the others—oats, barley, potatoes, peas, linseed, linen flax, vegetables, small seeds, etc.—any significant influences these may have are related only to meeting the demands of the increased population or are entirely dependent upon fluctuating and restricted overseas demands. Expanded Cropping Wheat cropping can be expanded and there is little doubt that this can be done without disruption to other avenues of cash return. In the next harvest Canterbury’s wheat production is likely to be in excess of 4 and 2/3 million bushels as against 2 and 1/3 million bushels for the previous harvest. As the area increases above this, which it is likely to do, should relative prices for produce remain the same, there would be some decrease in the potential to grow the other cereal crops and in the rate (but not necessarily the extent) of the increase in stock numbers. With wheat at 13s 6d and barley and oats at 8s 6d (and linseed £4O a ton) changes in price of the latter three could impinge on the wheat acreage to some small extent. It should be re-

membered, too, that with a wheat price as high as this New Zealand will in effect not benefit by any fall in worjd wheat prices.

The extent of diversification, then, which is economically sound (at the moment) is to grow our full requirements of wheat. Canterbury will be the province to benefit most by this. It is estimated that more than threequarters of the wheat is grown in the Canterbury wheat growing districts. Of the under 8 million acres of Canterbury, more than 5 million are unimproved and 2j million are cultivatable improved pasture areas.

Up to the present time most of the increased production obtained has been gained on under 3 million acres of cultivated improved land, of which about 1-3 million acres would be in crops of various kinds. In spite of the fact that these areas have been developed for the longest time, increases of the order of 20-30 per cent, per year. are still being obtained pn some farms. The sheep population of the province is approximately 7,300,000 of which 5,180,000 are breeding ewes.

The increase in total sheep and in breeding ewes has been very nearly at the same rate (for the whole of the province) and over the last few years would be about 6 per cent, per year. There are wide variations by which the sheep numbers have increased m various parts of the province.

Change In Pastern Up to a few years ago the increases followed a change in the pattern of farming from crop to pasture. The application of good pasture farming coincided with the exploitation of lime, super, and certified seeds. These led the way to pasture farming and the specialising in sheep and lamb production. It seems certain that sheep products must dominate the farming purse for many years and because of this there must be an increased search for alternative markets. Dr. McMeekan, after his recent visit to the United Kingdom, has given a warning regarding the possible upper limits of the United Kingdom lamb market. As pastoral farming has established in Canterbury, it has revolved around fat lamb production and it is probable that this type of farming is the most efficient in terms of food conservation and utilisation. With regular summer droughts and prolonger non-productive winters, a more simple adjustment of feed requirements is met with sheep than with other animal enterprises. New Markets It is obvious, therefore, that new markets are an urgent necessity because without them expected increases must bring lamb production to somewhere near the limit of the present market to absorb it. Canterbury’s sheep population

is distributed roughly in proportion over the extensive runs, the developing light lands and the developed . foothills, and heavy plainjflands. It is on the latter classes that fat lamb raising is of greatest prominence. On the developed foothills and light plains, it is fast becoming a total enterprise, and on much of the light land spectacular advances are being made. It can be anticipated that full utilisation and conservation of pastures could lead to some further increases on the heavy land, areas on which many consider potehtials have been reached. It may be that were fat lambs the sole aim for these farms that the potential increase of sheep numbers here could well’ be double that carried at present.

However, these areas take up the steady core of the cereal, cash crops, and small seeds which go with the best development of these farms.' There may be some fluctuation within these products, but no doubt the ability to produce when demand dictates will always be there. Nevertheless, it is on many of these farms that the utilisation of grass is at its poorest, and as this is realised more sheep will be carried to improve the situation.

It would not be beyond the limits of much of this land to produce its multiple lines of income with a near doubling of sheep.

A very great increase can be expected on the light and medium to light lands of Canterbury, even without irrigation. The most certain type of farming is almost confined to sheep, the soils are light, the fluctuation due to drought and winter severe, and on the whole properties are large enough to make them some of the most attractive sheep farms in the area.

With extending lucerne areas, adequate fertiliser, reasonable lime and good grasses and clovers, and control over pasture pests, a doubling of the carrying capacity of these areas is within reasonable reach.

The rapidity of development of these areas can bp seen in some of the figures taking shape at present. For instance, in the figures quoted by the Farm Improvement Group in Mid-Canter-bury, it can be seen that a sub-

stantial increase can be had a very quick time. In the first year, breeding flocks on 22 farms increased by 4454, or 23 per cent., to 23,264, and in the most recent period there has been a further increase of 15 per cent., or 3421 to 26,200. In the two years the overall increase has been 41.8 per cent. Marginal Areas The marginal downs, foothills and the better portions of some of the extensively held runs offer a very great potential and it would not be unlikely if some three and four-fold increases could be achieved. It is certainly w nin the realm of potentials, but there are some economic difficulties to be considered which do not influence the former areas to the 'same degree. Irrigation offers a further ultimate lift to all areas where it can be achieved. It might be of significance that a trend for irrigation use on the relatively small holdings of heavy land near the centres of population is a natural development to exploit full potential production as subdivisions become smaller and capital values higher. Indeed, irrigation may establish a more necessary place under such conditions than on the large farms offering a substantial margin of improvement, without water. -

In the ultimate utilisation of the light, dry lands, however, irrigation must be a means for furthe. production increases and should be measure-! in terms of potentials as shown in the small pilot areas at Winchmore where seven and a half ewes per acre are being carried. None of these potential increases can be produced without cost, nor can they be assumed without difficulties.

Nevertheless, we need to be aware that they are possible because they point to the fact that markets for the increased produce must be found, if we are to reasonably consider that increased primary production is in any way to be a solution of the economic troubles which beset us at the moment.

On the well developed farms the most potent factors for increasing production will be greater conservation and complete utilisa-

tion of feed will need capital for conservation and subdivision.

Closer subdivisions for the saving of autumn grass for ration feeding to sheep are aspects of the farms which are producing the greatest stock numbers at present, some up to six ewes an acre with up io l-10th of the farm in crop and provision for substantial saving of grass and clover seed should the occasion warrant.

On the medium plains the downs and foothills, capital for subdivision, pasture improvement, fertilisers, for conservation of feed supplies and for stock build up are essential. Some of these areas are abov£ the four ewes an acre class.

On the light plains and in the hotter parts of the large runs a complete capital development programme is necessary to achieve the ultimate aim but much can be achieved in a comparative short term by reasonable expenditure on seeds, fertiliser and by acquiring the necessary “know how.” Many of these areas will be potential 3-4 ewe per acre farms.

Potential To Develop This potential to develop is not confined to any one portion of Canterbury; it is true from the Waitakj river in the south to the T Conway in the north. Indeed, it extends with equal emphasis to Marlborough and Nelson. Ten million breeding ewes in Canterbury may seem a far cry but that number would not stretch its potential to anything like its limits.

It would not be unreasonable to speculate on a relatively easy doubling of present production within the framework of present farming in Canterbury.

Are we prepared to meet this with an equal challenge to exploit it to the full on new markets in new ways. If not the benefits may be imaginary rather than real