GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW

Press, Volume XCVI, Issue 28447, 29 November 1957, Page 14

GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW

Possibility Of Close Voting [By Our Parliamentary Reporter} Eighty representatives to sit in New Zealand’s thirty-second Parliament for the next three years will be elected from 255 candidates at the General Election tomorrow. A record 1,244,550 names are on the main and supplementary rolls, and the number of candidates seeking membership in the House of Representatives is the highest at a General Election since 1935.

Three main parties are contesting the election. They are National. Labour and Social Credit whose candidates are in all 76 European and four Maori constituencies. National, which became the Government party in 1949 after the 14-year Labour administration, was returned in 1951 and 1954. In the last Parliament it held 45 seats—a majority of 10 over the Labour opposition. Social Credit appeared as a major party in 1954 and although it polled more votes than expected it did not gain any seats.

There are five Communist candidates. One is in each of the four main cities and one in Westland. Independents, minor groups and “splinter” candidates make up the list. Neither these, nor the Communists, are expected to poll significantly. The issue is still between the National and Labour parties. Social Credit might split voting in a small number of electorates, but "its chances of gaining a foothold in Parliament as a third party appear slim. Tn several seats the league’s candidates could poll highly but the aggregate figure is sure to be less than it was three yegrs ago. Party Supporters

The National and Labour parties both have hard core supporters who will vote for their party in any circumstances. It is the incalculable number of “middle of the road” voters who decide the election. It is # said that these are mostly electors who wait until the last minute to see which party is offering more.

Boundary changes and slim majorities in many seats are such that only a minor swing in voting would have the effect of a decisive victory for the party favoured. There is generally a national pattern of voting, so if a party loses one or two marginal seats, others are likely to follow.

Boundary Changes It is generally conceded by political observers and the parties themselves that the election will be the closest between National and Labour since 1946. This is probably true if only the aggregate voting figures are considered, but since these do not decide proportionate Parliamentary representation (in 1954 Labour polled more votes than National) they can virtually be discounted in weighing prospects. The present position of the two parties could be reversed on the boundary changes alone, some Labour spokesmen claim. Leading National supporters do not deny this, but say they can hold their

fort with their record and their "forward-looking” proposals. While it is impossible to predict with any certainty the way more than a million people will vote, it is possible to forecast with a little accuracy what might happen should specific trends take place. For instance, should any swing favour Labour, the following Government-held seats would be among the first to go: St. Kilda, Eden, Lyttelton, St. Albans, Nelson, Roskill. Tamaki, North Shore, Otaki, and Patea. On the other hand, a National victory might take with it some of these seats: Dunedin Central, Gisborne, Hastings, Napier. Rotorua, Waitemata, Wanganui, Timaru, and Palmerston North. Two constituencies have been abolished by the Representation Commission, and two new seats created. Oamaru and Waimate, both National-held, were dissolved, and Waitaki created. In the North Island, an additional electorate, Piako, was created.

Seventy-three of the members of the last Parliament are standing again. They include all 35 members of the Parliamentary Labour Party, who will be standing in their old electorates. In the Parliamentary National Party, six sitting members have retired. One other failed to gain party endorsement for his candidature. Several of the remaining 38 are facing the electors in different constituencies. Licensing Issues Oamaru, the largest no-licence district in New Zealand, will be the only place in the South Island this year where the local option for liquor sales will be decided No-licence districts remain at Auckland Suburbs. Eden, Grey Lynn, and Roskill; Wellington South, East. and West. and Oamaru Clutha and Mataura carried restoration in 1954, but in Oamaru restoration missed by 547 votes in 11,465 cast. Although the Oamaru electorate has gone, the licensing district remains unchanged. Voters in other licensing districts will again have the opportunity of voting either for national continuance, State purchase and control, or national prohibition. The 1954 poll was the ninth at which the issues were put before the public. In 1935 the vote was 63.4 per cent, for continuance, compared with 61 per cent, in 1954. National prohibition voting has fallen since the 1925 peak of 47.3 per cent, to 23 per cent, in 1954.