Higher Population Density For City

Press, Volume XCVI, Issue 28415, 23 October 1957, Page 18

Higher Population Density For City

The population density’ of Christchurch could be increased to at least 12 persons to the acre instead of the present density of eight persons without any radical change to the present subdivisional standards.

These points are made by the Regional Planning Officer, Miss Nancy Northcroft, in a paper entitled ‘‘Land and People,” which has been published by the Canterbury Chamber of Commerce as an economic bulletin.

“Christchurch today contains 63 per cent, of the provincial population. Forty years ago it contained only 52 per cent.; 20 years ago. 57 per cent..” says the article. “Will it, in another 20 years, contain something approaching 70 per cent.? This possibility has important economic implications both for Christchurch and for the further development of the province, and it is a subject which requires urgent and thorough investigation.”

Is it in the interests of the country as a whole that the South Island should continue to lose population to the North Island? asks the article. Can Christchurch afford to allow the Canterbury countryside actually to lose population in the next 20 years? And should the towns, in the interests of both town and country, be allowed to go on growing at such a low density as eight persons to the acre? Period 1900-1951 In the first 50 years of the century. 10 towns of 25.000 or more persons increased their population by 540.000, as compared with an increase of only 27.000 by 49 towns of 1000 to 2500 persons. The towns of 25.000 or more persons provided 51.5 per cent, of the increase in New Zealand’s total population, compared with the 2.6 per cent, increase in total population provided by the towns of 1000 to 2500 persons. Not only is there a tendency for the population to congregate in the large towns, but it would appear that they are tending more and more to dominate the situation, says the article. “The dominance of the large town is even more striking m Canterbury,” says the article. “In 1951, Christchurch, with its population of 174,221, contained 62.2 per cent, of the provincial population. There are only nine towns in the province with a population of more than 1000. but among them they account for nearly 80 per cent, of the whole provincial population. •Nevertheless. Christchurch has shown a steady relative increase in size over at least the last 45 years. The Christchurch population as a percentage of the provincial population at successive censuses is as follows:—1911, 51 per cent.; 1916, 52 per cent.; 1921, 53 per cent.; 1926, 55 per cent.; 1936, 57 per cent.; 1945, 61 per cent.; 1951. 62 per cent.; and 1956, 63 per cent. (These figures, which relate to the Christchurch urban area, are comparable, having been adjusted to take account of any boundary changes.) ” Rates of Growth

"In the period 1911-1956, Christchurch has grown at a rate of about 1$ per cent, a year,” says the article. “Timaru has grown at a rate of about 1| per cent, a year, and the province as a whole about 11 per cent, a year. If these relative rates continue, then in 20 years, the population of the province, outside Christchurch and Timaru, win possibly be very little different from what it is today. It may even be a little less. If the rates of growth were to continue for the next 45 years, then the province. again outside Christchurcn and Timaru, would possibly have about 20.000 fewer persons than it has today. If in 20 years’ time there are fewer people in the countryside of Canterbury will that affect it? ability to expand its agricultural production? asks the article. Thia decreasing population would be spread not only over the farming community but also the country towns such as Ashburton. Rangiora, Kaiapoi, and Waimate. “There are, however, many who believe that the time is coming when, if production from the land is to be increased, more people will be required on the land,” says the article. "Mr E. J. Fawcet, Director-General ol Agriculture, in a paper presentea to a farmers’ conference at Lincoln in 1956, said that the average level of production a unit of labour now reached cannot be raised materially by further mechanisation.’ If the relative drift from the Soutn Island to the North Island continues, and if within Canterbury, Christchurch continues its high relative rate of growth, one is left wondering as to who will remain in Canterbury and what will become of the land.” Change in Distribution The article says that Canterbury, over the years, and right up to the present, has shown a slow but steady decline relative to the New Zealand population, and there is no indication of any change occurring in this respect. In other words, there is a limit to the Canterbury share of the next million that it is expected will be added to the New Zealand population by 1975. It would appear, therefore, that if a change is to occur in the distribution of population within the province, it must come from some change within the province itself, and in this respect, the only change that could make any appreciable difference would De for the rate of growth of Christchurch to fall. “The following facts must also be considered:— <1) With a total New Zealand population of 2,000.000 the urbanised parts of the towns occupy 162.500 acres. This is the present position. (2) In 1975, with a population of 3.000,000, the urbanised parts of the towns will occupy 243,750 acres. <3) The additional land required. therefore, for urban purposes. by 1975 is 81,250 acres, sav 80.000.

"In 20 years the loss of 80.000 acres, from farming to towns. P? ay . not seem a great deal, particularly as the Government is. 40 rw?» reSGnt ’ breakin g in about 40.000 acres a year. There are ahmSTL * points whicb snouid be borne in mind. b "The additional 80.000 acres required by the towns is not the

Such an increase in the city’s population density would reduce greatly the cost of city services needed for the estimated increase of city population by 1975.

end of the loss to farming. As towns spread outwards, farm lands in their vicinity, though not yet ripe for urban development, deteriorate and production falls off. “In the second place, the land taken for urban purposes is usually good land, for good building land is also good farming land, well-drained, fertile, easy country.

“In the third place, as the towns move outward a change in the types of farming takes place. The town replaces the market garden: the market garden replaces the dairy farm: the dairy farm replaces the sheep farm and so on. “As things stand at present, therefore, it would seem that within 20 years 80.000 acres will go out of production altogether: possibly another 80,000 acres will suffer a quite substantial loss in production. Rise in Density

“The figures given above for the additional land that will be required for urban purposes by 1975 were based on the assumption that the over-all population density of the towns will be something in the order of eight to the acre. If, however, the over-all density over the whole town became 12 to the acre, the total land required for the towns by 1975 would be 162.500 acres, no more than at present. “An indication of what this rise in density might mean, in terms of land use and in the design and standards for the towns, can be seen bv examining the position in Christchurch. The following table gives the areas of land used for various purposes within the main city area of Christchurch:— Land Use. Area. Percentage in of total

"The amount of land within the urbanised part of the city, 4,007.43 acres, is not all suitable, nor could it be used, for urban purposes. But allowing for this, it still could have accommodated an additional 35,000 persons without in any way altering present subdivisional standards.

“Land used for residential purposes accounts for nearly half the total. Any appreciable saving in land used for urban purposes must come from a change in the way residential land is used. Can this be done without changing the traditional New Zealand pattern of single houses on quarter-acre sections? “The answer to this may be found from the fact that at the 1951 census 53 per cent, of all the houses in New Zealand were occupied by households of three persons or less, and 32 per cent., or about one-third, by households of only two persons, or less. It would appear that there may be a large number of families which neither need nor want quarteracre sections, so that a reduction could possibly be made in the amount of land used for residential purposes. (“At present in Christchurch the net residental density of single houses averages 4.7 houses to the acre. If, however, a quarter of all the houses had been built as flats of various kinds at a net residential density of 10 dwelling units an acre, to cater for some of the small size households, then the over-all density of the town would have risen from 8 to 8.6 persons to the acre.) Reduction in Sections

“If this increase in the over-all density of six persons an acre is added to the 9.7 persons to the acre which could be obtained from using some of the empty land at present within the city, it will be seen that the density has increased from eight to 10.3 persons an acre. To bring the density up to 12 persons to the acre might need some reduction in the quarter-acre section, although not a great reduction. It could also be accomplished by using even more of the empty land within the city and by raising the net density for flats to more than 10 dwelling units to the acre."

"The rate at which Christchurch may be expected to grow will affect such things as the service it must plan to provide and its potential as a manufacturing centre.

“The construction costs of town streets is a case in point. If, by 1975, the towns were developed so that their density was eight persons to the acre then approximately 1700 additional miles of town streets would be required. If, however, they were developed so that the density became 12 persons to the acre then only about 700 additional miles of town streets would have to be built, and at £30.000 to £40.000 a mile, which includes the laving of water and sewer pipes, this represents a saving, throughout the country, of something in the order of £3om to £4om on construction costs alone. This, of course, does not include such other capital costs as pumping stations and reservoirs, or the supply of electricity and gas. Nor does it include maintenance or the other additional costs that will have to be borne by other services such as public transport,” says the article.

Use of Humus Advocated.— The New Zealand Organic Compost Society in a statement has appealed to both the National and the Labour Parties to take steps after the General Election to restrict the use of artificial fertiliser in agriculture. The society claimed artificial' fertiliser was seriously depleting the fertility of the soil and it urged the use of live humus.—(P.A.)

Acres. Area Residential .. 10,588.80 47.30 Commercial 176.68 .76 Industry 1.102.65 4.94 Public . • 1,094.49 4.90 Railway 198.50 .87 Open Spaces 1281.05 5.74 (parks) Primary 1,92420 8.61 (farming) Vacant (Rubbish .30 tips) 6720 Vacant—Scrub .. 313.70 1.40 Vacant—Other .. 1,702.33 7.61 Roads and Streets 3.775.89 16.85 Other 160.88 .72 — Total 22.336.37 100.00