Economist Advises N.Z. To Find More Markets

Press, Volume XCV, Issue 28180, 19 January 1957, Page 10

Economist Advises N.Z. To Find More Markets

(New Zealand Press Association)

DUNEDIN, January 18.

Market possibilities for animal foodstuffs are not particularly bright, according to Mr J. V. White, the Agricultural Department’s rural economist. He made this statement after presenting a paper, “Farm Production and Potential and Requirements,” to today’s session of the science congress.

Making it clear that New Zealand would continue to depend on farm production for its economic existence, he said: (1) Farm production must be expanded at a greater rate. (2) Costs must be kept down. (3) Quality must be maintained and improved. (4) Every possibility for selling meat and dairy produce must be explored. “On the basis of present knowledge,” ’Mr White said, “there is scope for at least doubling farm production in New Zealand. Forecasts made last year suggest that the actual increase in production by 1975 is meat, 40 per cent.; dairy produce, 30 per cent.; and wool, 56 per cent.

“Availability for export will be slightly less in the case of meat and less still in the case of dairy produce.” However, an increase of 60 per cent., based on 1950, or about 50 per cent, above the 1955 level, was required. Doubtful Prospects

“Some acceleration of the rate of production increase is necessary if terms of trade remain at par, and still more if they move against us,” he said. It might be thought that there would be markets for increasing quantities, even of high-cost animal proteins and fats, and yet at the moment, prospects appeared doubtful. Meat consumption in the United Kingdom was up to pre-war level, but the rate of population increase was low Greatly increased consumption was no doubt possible, but only at lower prices. “With wool and butter, our two principal exports, the future is clouded by the increasing development and use of substitutes,” Mr White said.

“In the United Kingdom, our principal market, synthetics, plus consumer resistance and static population, all tend to limit market expansion.’” Forecasts made in North America suggested that there should be no difficulty within the next 20 years in meeting the requirements of meat and dairy produce, and with the output of cereals this seemed certain. “There may, however, still be scope for specialised lines, such as lamb, if properly marketed,” Mr White said. Other Markets Market possibilities in Europe were restricted by lack of purchasing power, food habits and policies aimed at establishing a self-sufficient agriculture.

Mr White described the East as “the great enigma.” Income levels would, on the face of it, he said, “make the purchase ot butter, cheese and meat an absurdity. “In addition, food habits resulting from religious prejudices militate against animal foodstuffs. Nevertheless, so great is the population of these countries that even if a relatively small percentage purchased just a little meat, butter or cheese, the aggregate effect on the market might be significant.” In the Soviet bloc countries, the position was more problematical still. Russian agriculture was lagging behind industrial development —particularly with livestock production. China was the same. “May we yet see the curious paradox ot some Western countries depending on the Communist world for a market for their products while the Communist world in turn depends on certain Western countries for those very products’ which, as, far as food consumption is concerned, make the difference between living and just existing?”