Argentine Beef Export Trends Hard To Predict

Press, Volume XCIV, Issue 28010, 3 July 1956, Page 10

Argentine Beef Export Trends Hard To Predict

“The Press” Special Service

PALMERSTON NORTH. July 2 “There is likely to be a good deal of fluctuation and uncertainty about future beef exports from Argentina," said Dr H. B. Low. head of the economics department at Massey Agricultural College, at the annual sheep farmers' conference. “In the last few years. New Zealand has received attractive prices for its export beef mainly because supplies from the Argentine have been so low It has become increasingly obvious for more than a year now that Argentine meat exports have begun to increase and that the new Government has already made strenuous efforts to expand them further. Dr. Low said it was difficult to make

any accurate forecast of the trend of Argentine beef exports during the next 10 years, because no-one knew the future pattern of domestic consumption and production in that country. If the total production again reached the 1950 level of 2,044.000 tons and domestic consumption was maintained at the 1955 level of 190 pounds a head, then there would be approximately 424.000 tons left for export. This figure was about equivalent to the present leve 1 of exports which had already had its effect on the United Kingdom market in the last few months.

e J/’ howev< ?r, domestic consumption fell from 190 pounds a hchd to the; pre-war average of 170 pounds, this would release 600.000 tons for export i almost up to the pre-war level. “Of the two levels of export I have chosen.” said Dr. Low. “I think the lower one the more likely in the neat future because transport, especially seems to be a bottleneck and R P ace is also some limitation.” If the export level for Argentine beef during the next year proved to be around the 400.000-ton mark 11 would cause much less disturbance to the market than it had in the first year of private trade, which had been marked by uncertainty. Looking ahead for the next 10 years. Dr. Low said the expansion of Argentine beef production would be hampered by the use of very little fertiliser, periodic droughts, diseases and pests, and by only the smallest beginnings of a department of agriculture.

In the last 10 years the Argentine nopulation had increased by 3.6 million and was likely to make a similar gam in the next 10 years. This would raise the domestic consumption by 270.000 tons even at the lowest recorded amount a head.

“This is a very big prospective cut at the increased beef production which the Argentine will be all out to achieve.” he said. “In the longer run. I would expect their expansion to be immense. But the population of South America as a whole looks like growing so big so fast that I feel that the beef will go to markets that just do not exist at the moment.”