Liberals Need 12 Seats To Win In N.S.W.

Press, Volume XCIII, Issue 27907, 2 March 1956, Page 11

Liberals Need 12 Seats To Win In N.S.W.

(Australian Correspondent N.Z.P.A.) (Rec. 10 p.m.) SIDNEY, March 1. Next Saturday, New South Wales electors will pass judgment on a Labour Government which has ruled the State for 15 years.

Both the Premier (Mr J. J. Cahill) and the Leader of the Opposition (Mr P. H. Morton) are confident of victory. Mr Morton predicts that the Liberal and Country Parties will win 12. and possibly 16 scats from Labour. However, Mr Cahill thinks Labour will not only be re-elected, but may gain two seats. Independent observers have been singularly reticent to make predictions about the outcome of the poll, but it does seem likely that the Labour Government will lose seats. Whether the Liberal-Country Party opposition can gain the necessary 12 seats seems doubtful. The state of the parties in the old House was: Labour .. .. .. 56 Independent Labour .. 2 Liberal Party .. .. 22 Country Party .. .. 14 j The election campaign has been a I particularly heated one with much i “muck-slinking.” The fact that Labour i has ruled so long might seem to sugI gest that it has been a satisfactory government to a majority of voters. But this leaves out of account two 1 electoral redistributions carried out

during this time, which are claimed to have made the Opposition’s task infinitely harder. The newspapers forecast that another redistribution will fallow next Saturday’s election, and the “Sydney Morning Herald’’ goes so far as to say that if Labour is returned to office. New Sr<ith Wales faces the possibility of a permanent Labour Government, “a one-party state parallel to the lamentable Queensland model.” The Labour Party faces the threat that rebel forces within the party will “torpedo” the Cahill Government. This threat to the Government is a hangover from the bitter Labour faction fight which led in the Federal elections last December to one of the worst landslides the party has ever suffered. On the surface, the Australian Labour Party has presented a “united front" in the State campaign. But behind the scenes, the Labour movement is seething with party warfare. Labour men say that in New South Wales the industrial group movement, supported by Catholic Action, has gained almost complete control. Sectarian loyalties are said to be one of the big factors that will decide the election issue. One Australian Labour Party official said: “Thousands of Labour men believe the defeat of Mr Cahill is the only way to break ; the grip of the industrial groups and ; Catholic Action.” j A Labour campaign organiser said . one problems was to convince

the Australian Labour Party members that it was better to return a “bad” Labour Government than a Liberal Government. He predicted an unusually big informal vote. For the opposition to win 12 seats from Labour, a swing of about 6 per cent, since the last State election in 1953 would be necessary. But it would require less than a 1 per cent, swing since the Federal elections last December.

After the 1953 State elections. Labour retained nine seats by majorities of fewer than 2000 votes. In any one of those seats, f-wcr than 1000 voters would need to change their minds to swing the seat to the Liberal-Country Party. With an average of approximately 20.000 voters, all those seats would go to the Liberal-Country Party on a swing of 5 per cent, since 1953. Liberal Party organisers say that if the Liberal-Country Party vote follows the trend it has taken over the last three years. Labour will be defeated. Mr Morton commented: “I am satisfied a landslide against Labour is on the way.”

Mr Cahill said: ”1 cannot see the slightest trace of notable hostility against the Government ”