Prospects For Congress Elections In November

Press, Volume XC, Issue 27443, 1 September 1954, Page 14

Prospects For Congress Elections In November

(From a Reuter Correspondent)

NEW YORK. The future of the Eisenhower Administration and of an entire cycle of Republican control of the United States’ Government may be at stake in an election to be held in November. Observers predict that it will be one of the most crucial off-year (off-year in that there is no Presidential election) elections in recent history. All of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are at stake, and the Chamber is so closely divided that every contest carries unusually weighty implications, not only for the candidates but also for the political parties. There are 219 Republicans, 213 Democrats and one Independent in the House, with two vacancies in safely Democratic districts. Many analysts give the Democrats a good chance of capturing control of the House. Republican prospects are generally favoured in the Senate,

where more Democratic than Republican seats are at stake, with only onethird of the Chamber to be elected. Since 1900, the party in control of the White House has lost seats in the House of Representatives in every offyear election except 1934, during Mr Franklin Roosevelt’s first term as President. ' Four times the opposing party has gained control of the House. If the Democrats gain control of both the House and the Senate this year, it will be the first time this century that they have controlled Congress during the term of a Republican President View of Professionals A report in the “New York Times” recently said that in this year’s battle for the House, the professional Republican strategists were counting less than might be expected on the popularity of President Eisenhower and the success of his legislative programme. This might seem curious in view of the 1934 gains scored by the Democrats at the height of President Roosevelt’s popularity and considering the importance that President Eisenhower himself placed on the role that his programme would play. But the professionals’ view, was that off-year House elections turn more on local -issues, local conditions and the personalities of candidates.

They attributed the 1934 phenomenon not so much to President Roosevelt’! popularity and the success of his programme as to the theory that the 1932 Democratic trend simply did not gain full momentum until 1934. Many Republican representatives withstood the

1932 Roosevelt landslide, only to be overcome in 1934 by what these strategists regarded as the second wave of a two-year onslaught. By the same sort of reasoning, the report said, it was possible to conclude that a Republican trend was just getting under way in 1952, when the party captured the White House and Congress, and would continue largely on its own momentum through the elections next November. In spite of the Eisenhower landslide, the Republicans won Congress two years ago by the narrowest of margins. Party candidates for the House carried 76 fewer election districts than did Mr Eisenhower. Widest Area of Battle As the widest probable area of battle for the House, both parties were looking at 85 seats that were won in 1952 by less than 55 per cent, of the total vote cast for Congressional candidates in the districts involved. Forty were held by Republicans and 45 by Democrats. But all were not regarded as “marginal,” because they had been held for as many as 32 years, in some cases, by the same party. Within that broad category, the field might be narrowed down to 25 seats that were won in 1952 by 5000 votes or less. Ten were held by Republicans and 15 by Democrats. The Republicans calculated that they might be in serious trouble in a maximum of 10 districts now represented by Republicans. But nine others represented by the Democrats were regarded as “excellent prospects” for successful Republican raids, and an additional 18 Democratic Seats were placed in an “anything-can-happen” category.

On the balance, the Republican analysts estimated that the party would register a net gain of*at least 10 seats. The Democrats, for their party, were looking for a net gain of 10 seats in the House. If it went beyond that, they predicted, the party would win by something resembling a landslide and take charge of 250 or more of the 435 Congressional districts. The Democrats were willing to write off more than six seats now represented by the party, although 31 others were listed as doubtful under possibly adverse circumstances. They were counting on Democrats to capture 20 seats now hekr by Republicans and had designs on 61 others that could go Democratic, in their estimation, under conceivably favourable conditions.