FEEDING THE WORLD IN THE YEAR 2000

Press, Volume XC, Issue 27368, 5 June 1954, Page 6

FEEDING THE WORLD IN THE YEAR 2000

LOOKING FORWARD

London, May 21.—Sir Harold Hartley, president of the World Power Conference since 1950, discussed the future pattern of science and industry in the first Fawley Foundation Lecture at Southampton University yesterday. Sir Harold Hartley said that in 1900 the total government expenditure on research in the civilian field in this country was £61,000, where today it was about £16,000,000, to which should be added a considerable share of the annual grant to universities administered by the University Grants Committee. In 1900 the total expenditure by industry on research was well below £1,000,000, and today it was nearer £50,000,000. In his “guesses” about future progress, Sir Harold Hartley emphasised the importance of the chemical engineer, which has been quickly realised by our industrial competitors abroad, and at last, he said, there was a growing recognition of the place of chemical engineering in the engineering faculties of British universities. But we needed not only chemical engineers but more scientists and engineers of all types. . The universities must remain tne stronghold of fundamental, uncommitted research, “on which the creative stimulus of their teaching will so much depend.” He went on: “In physics the research effort is directed mainly to nuclear physics and electronics, both of them fields of great importance to industry. But it is unfortunate that there has been a serious neglect, of classical physics, which is the foundatidn of so much engineering, and this neglect, unless redressed, will be a serious handicap in the future.”

It was a hopeful sign that the problems of tjje transfer of mass and energy in chemical engineering were beginning to attract the attention of applied qiathematicians like Sir Geoffrey Taylor and Professors Goldstein. • > . ■ Population Sir Harold Hartley guessed at what the needs of the world in the year 2000 would be, and how science and industry would try to meet them. To feed an estimated increased population ’of 3,250,000,000 at an adequate standard would require an increase of food production, of roughly two-thirds by then, or a little-over 1 per cent, per annum compound—“lf the number should rise to 4,000,000,000 the prospect is much more alarming.” An annual rise of 3 per cent, compound in industrial output was a likely guess “provided we escape the calamity of war/’ That meant increased industrial output of 350 per cent, by 2000, involving an estimated increase m energy consumption of 125 per cent, and of raw materials of 300 per cent., allowing for economies in manufacture. He wondered whether certain agents, such as water, energy, metals, and minerals, affecting agriculture and industry, were likely to become “limiting factors.” Surveys and planning were needed to ensure that the utmost use was made of our water resources, and to see that the underground reservoirs were not being permanently depleted. In Britain it,was becoming increasingly aifficult to find sites for plants needing

much water, and m the United State the lowering of the water table points on the seaboard had led f Q seepage of salt water and loss of agrj. cultural land. He doubted whether there was any other single project which would benS fit so many millions of people and d 0 so much to relieve the tension b e . tween two nations as the great schemi for damming the headwaters of th’ Indus to provide perennial irrigatioi and water power for much of its vai basin. The World Bank was now con. sidering the-project. Such multi-watej schemes would set the future pattern he said, and hydraulic engineering bound to play an increasing part in the world. The whole “energy picture” had been changed by the future possibili, ties of atomic power, and clearly there would be no world shortage by 2000 although its availability might well d e . termine where development took place. The consumption of oil ant natural gas was rising rapidly, while coal was almost stationary. But the coal reserves were much greater th o n oil and it might be that by then the world’s needs of liquid fuel would be partly met by oil from shale or coal petroleum being kept for special pub poses. Metal Economies Referring to metals, Sir Harold Hartley forecast an increased recovery of scrap with other economies, and intensive research for new ore deposits; new methods of metallurgy, and fecreasing emphasis on conservation. With the great industrial expansion would come increased use of electronic controls and a rapid growth in the newer industries, such as plastic! based so largely on research. Eut with this growing emphasis on research, what would happen to the vast number of smaller firms which could not afford to spend large sums in this way? “They must specialise in the know-how of two or three new dft. velopments, which they can exploit,” he said. Research associations could help with! advice, and the National Research De-| velopment Corporation could support ar promising idea, but the initiative andfe inventiveness had to come from insideE the firm. For instance, in the corning! age of automatic plants the redesign! of machines must be done in co-opern-ft tion with the experts in instrumental! control. “Some new organisation isfe needed to make such advice where the characteristics of the ma-f chines can be analysed by an simulator.” In discussing how to increase food! production, Sir Harold Hartley said hefe doubted whether, in view of the urk gency of the problem, agriculture hadfe had its fair share of research effort,to compared with industry, particularlj® in relation to the countries where thefc food deficiency was greatest. “Buffi with all that science can do, the hunianjr problem will remain, the need tot change traditions and to provide incentives, and to break thek vicious circle—that malnutrition re-jt duces effort and lowers the food pro-k' duction which is "the source of rnaUlc nutritionjtself.” -